Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

GEO analysis

Geo Group Inc (The) REITSecurity & Protection Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

GEO
Geo Group Inc (The) REIT · Security & Protection Services
FCF$26mC-
Rev+15.3%B+
D/E1.06C+
P/E15.4xA-
PEG1.82C+
45.0Score
$32.71$4.3B
1Y Target$37.75Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$55.27Compound horizon
10Y Target$81.99Long-dated conviction
FCF$26mTTM
C-
FCF $26m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev+15.3%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +15.3% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E1.06
C+
D/E 1.06 — above the Industrials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E15.4x
A-
P/E 15.4 — cheaper than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.82
C+
PEG 1.82 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 45
Quality62.4
Growth46.0
Value31.8
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value471% aboveest. fair value ~$6
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding above 60% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability48% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC8.2% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Security & Protection Services · market cap $4.3b. Trading near 52-week high of $32.91 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $37.75 (implying +15% upside).
Moat
ROE 19% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.
Horizon
1-3 yr $37.75 (4-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $55.27 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $81.99 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

GEO vs the Top Picks average

PillarGEOBook avgDiff
Quality0.620.84-0.22
Growth0.460.84-0.38
Value0.320.78-0.46

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+5.5 over 45 daily scores
From 39.5 (Jun 22) → 45.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.8%
90-day change+2.8%
Forward EPS estimate$1.71

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect GEO to earn is drifting higher (+2.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
61
Position size
$1,995
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$24.53
25% below $32.71
$ at risk if stopped
$498.83
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO): score, valuation & FAQ

Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) is a Security & Protection Services company that scores 45 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and Rev (B+), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, GEO sits about 471% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade.

Is GEO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores GEO 45 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Geo Group Inc (The) REIT's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does GEO score 45 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). GEO earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and Rev (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is GEO overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $32.71, GEO sits about 471% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade. It trades at a 15.4x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in GEO?

Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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