GEO vs the Top Picks average
| Pillar | GEO | Book avg | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quality | 62 | 83 | -21 |
| Growth | 70 | 89 | -19 |
| Value | 46 | 76 | -30 |
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
GEO at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
| 30-day change | +0.4% |
|---|---|
| 90-day change | +3.3% |
| Forward EPS estimate | $1.72 |
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect GEO to earn is drifting higher (+3.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO): score, valuation & FAQ
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) is a Security & Protection Services company that scores 58.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, GEO sits about 670% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing over 60% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is GEO a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores GEO 58.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of The GEO Group, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does GEO score 58.3 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 70.0 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 45.5 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. GEO earns its highest marks on P/E (A-), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so GEO is measured against Security & Protection Services peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is GEO overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $31.13, GEO sits about 670% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing over 60% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 14.6x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in GEO?
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.