Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

GEO analysis

Geo Group IncCommercial Services & Supplies. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

GEO
Geo Group Inc · Commercial Services & Supplies
FCF-$31mF
Rev+13.0%B+
D/E1.10C+
P/S1.2xA-
PEG0.89B+
69Score
$22.68
1Y Target$30.62Near-term target
5Y Target$45.62Compound horizon
10Y Target$118.70Long-dated conviction
FCF-$31mTTM · 03/26
F
FCF is negative (-$31m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+13.0%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +13.0% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E1.10total
C+
D/E 1.10 — moderately levered, watch interest coverage · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/S1.2x
A-
P/S 1.2x — cheap for any tech/growth name
PEG0.89proxy
B+
PEG 0.89 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0) · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Commercial Services & Supplies · market cap $3.1b. 19% off the 52-week high of $27.90. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.89 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
ROE 18% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$31m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $30.62 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $45.62 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $118.70 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Shares to buy
88
Position size
$1,996
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$17.01
25% below $22.68
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

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