Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ALLE analysis

Allegion plcSecurity & Protection Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

ALLE
Allegion plc · Security & Protection Services
FCF$671mC+
Rev+10.6%B
D/E1.05C+
P/E21.3xB+
PEG2.33C
67.8Score
$162.31$13.8B
1Y Target$174.64Analyst consensus · 11 analysts
5Y Target$255.69Compound horizon
10Y Target$379.29Long-dated conviction
FCF$671mTTM
C+
FCF $671m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+10.6%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +10.6% — at or above S&P median
D/E1.05
C+
D/E 1.05 — above the Industrials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E21.3x
B+
P/E 21.3 — below the Industrials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.33
C
PEG 2.33 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 67.8
Quality82.8
Growth81.7
Value46.1
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
11% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value7% aboveest. fair value ~$151
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~8% a year for the next decade — vs the ~9% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability36% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC17.0% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Security & Protection Services · market cap $13.8b. 11% off the 52-week high of $183.11. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 11 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $174.64 (implying +8% upside).
Moat
Net margin 15% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 31% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 102% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $174.64 (11-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $255.69 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $379.29 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ALLE vs the Top Picks average

PillarALLEBook avgDiff
Quality0.830.84in line
Growth0.820.84-0.02
Value0.460.78-0.32

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.1 over 47 daily scores
From 72.9 (Jun 22) → 67.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+1.8%
90-day change+2.1%
Forward EPS estimate$9.75

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ALLE to earn is drifting higher (+2.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,948
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$121.73
25% below $162.31
$ at risk if stopped
$486.93
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Allegion plc (ALLE): score, valuation & FAQ

Allegion plc (ALLE) is a Security & Protection Services company that scores 67.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+). On valuation, ALLE sits about 7% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ALLE a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ALLE 67.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Allegion plc's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ALLE score 67.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ALLE earns its highest marks on P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ALLE overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $162.31, ALLE sits about 7% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 21.3x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ALLE?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Security Services stocks by score

All Industrials rankings →

Analyze another ticker →