Revenue +6.5% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.46B+
D/E 0.46 — below the Industrials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E23.6xB+
P/E 23.6 — below the Industrials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG0.99B+
PEG 0.99 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 76.5
Quality81.3
Growth72.5
Value76.1
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value17% aboveest. fair value ~$162
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~10% a year for the next decade — vs the ~9% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability36% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC16.3% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
MSA’s breathing apparatus and fixed gas detection systems are the backbone of industrial safety, a market that is tightening regulations and expanding into new geographies. With a 6.5% YoY revenue growth, a 16.1% profit margin, and a free‑cash‑flow of $354 million, the company is already delivering solid cash and margin expansion. Our model’s Quality‑growth score of 76.7/100, anchored by a 81 in Quality, shows that the business is a high‑quality compounder that can sustain the 11%/yr free‑cash‑flow growth implied by the reverse‑DCF, making the current price a fair entry point.
Moat
MSA’s fixed gas detection monitoring systems and open‑path infrared gas detectors give it a technical moat: the sensors are calibrated to industry safety standards and are sold to regulated sectors such as oil & gas, chemical plants, and utilities where switching costs are high. The company’s 22.4% ROE is driven by pricing power in these niche markets, where the need for certified safety equipment limits competition.
Risk
The main threat is the 24× P/E, which is above the sector average and assumes continued 11% free‑cash‑flow growth. If revenue growth slows below the 6.5% YoY trend or if regulatory changes reduce demand for fixed gas detection, margins could compress. A rise in debt‑to‑equity above 0.46 would also pressure cash flow and dilute earnings.
Horizon
1-3 yr $209.14 (7-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $264.04 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $338.62 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
MSA vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
MSA
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.81
0.84
-0.03
Growth
0.73
0.84
-0.11
Value
0.76
0.78
-0.02
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · MSA
Trend
+0.5 over 47 daily scores
From 76.0 (Jun 22) → 76.5 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+3.2%
90-day change
+3.2%
Forward EPS estimate
$10.01
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MSA to earn is drifting higher (+3.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · MSA
$
%
%
Shares to buy
10
Position size
$1,894
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$142.07
25% below $189.43
$ at risk if stopped
$473.58
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) is a Security & Protection Services company that scores 76.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (B+), P/E (B+) and PEG (B+). On valuation, MSA sits about 17% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is MSA a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores MSA 76.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (B+), P/E (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of MSA Safety Incorporated's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does MSA score 76.5 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MSA earns its highest marks on D/E (B+), P/E (B+) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is MSA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $189.43, MSA sits about 17% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 23.6x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in MSA?
The main threat is the 24× P/E, which is above the sector average and assumes continued 11% free‑cash‑flow growth. If revenue growth slows below the 6.5% YoY trend or if regulatory changes reduce demand for fixed gas detection, margins could compress. A rise in debt‑to‑equity above 0.46 would also pressure cash flow and dilute earnings.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.