Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CVX analysis

Chevron CorporationOil & Gas Integrated. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

CVX
Chevron Corporation · Oil & Gas Integrated
FCF$26.9bA
Rev+11.2%B
D/E0.19A-
P/E19.8xC+
PEG0.79A-
56.8Score
$205.27$402.7B
1Y Target$217.88Analyst consensus · 24 analysts
5Y Target$275.06Compound horizon
10Y Target$352.76Long-dated conviction
FCF$26.9bTTM
A
FCF $26.9b — top-tier cash generation, rarefied air
Rev+11.2%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +11.2% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.19
A-
D/E 0.19 — less debt than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E19.8x
C+
P/E 19.8 — above the Energy median (≈75th pctile)
PEG0.79
A-
PEG 0.79 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 56.8
Quality66.1
Growth50.0
Value55.4
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
4% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value22% aboveest. fair value ~$168
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~3% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability28% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Oil & Gas Integrated · market cap $402.7b. 4% off the 52-week high of $214.71. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.79 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 24 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $217.88 (implying +6% upside).
Moat
ROE 11% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 131% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $402.7b market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $217.88 (24-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $275.06 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $352.76 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CVX vs the Top Picks average

PillarCVXBook avgDiff
Quality0.660.84-0.18
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.550.78-0.23

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+8.8 over 46 daily scores
From 48.0 (Jun 22) → 56.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+5.8%
90-day change+6.3%
Forward EPS estimate$13.23

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CVX to earn is materially higher (+6.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
9
Position size
$1,847
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$153.95
25% below $205.27
$ at risk if stopped
$461.86
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Chevron Corporation (CVX): score, valuation & FAQ

Chevron Corporation (CVX) is a Oil & Gas Integrated company that scores 56.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (A-). On valuation, CVX sits about 22% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CVX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CVX 56.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Chevron Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CVX score 56.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CVX earns its highest marks on FCF (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CVX overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $205.27, CVX sits about 22% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 19.8x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CVX?

Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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