Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CVNA analysis

Carvana Co.Auto & Truck Dealerships. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

CVNA
Carvana Co. · Auto & Truck Dealerships
FCF$929mC+
Rev+54.0%A
D/E1.11B
P/E37.0xC
PEG0.98B+
67.9Score
$69.91$104.0B
1Y Target$82.83Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$121.26Compound horizon
10Y Target$179.89Long-dated conviction
FCF$929mTTM
C+
FCF $929m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+54.0%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +54.0% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E1.11
B
D/E 1.11 — near the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E37.0x
C
P/E 37.0 — expensive vs Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.98est.
B+
PEG 0.98 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0) · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 67.9
Quality68.0
Growth93.8
Value49.0
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
28% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value377% aboveest. fair value ~$15
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~58% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability33% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC19.2% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Carvana’s e‑commerce platform for used cars is scaling at a 54% YoY revenue rate, driven by its end‑to‑end acquisition, inspection, and logistics network, while free cash flow of $929 m fuels a 6.3% profit margin and a 38.9% ROE—three numbers that prove a high‑growth, cash‑generating engine. The Bull Rankings model scores Carvana 74.2/100, with Growth at 92, underscoring the sustainability of that 54% revenue acceleration. The implied 57%/yr free‑cash‑flow growth from the reverse DCF already prices in aggressive upside, so the current price of $69.48 is a bargain for a company that can keep adding volume and margin.
Moat
Carvana’s unique fulfillment experience—online search, financing, and a nationwide logistics network that delivers vehicles door‑to‑door—creates a high switching cost for buyers who value convenience over price. The company’s auction sites and reconditioning process lock in inventory quality, allowing it to maintain a 6.3% margin that rivals traditional dealers and is difficult for competitors to replicate at scale.
Risk
The high beta of 3.49 and debt‑to‑equity of 1.11 expose Carvana to market volatility and leverage risk; a 36.8 P/E multiple indicates investors are already pricing in significant upside, so any slowdown in the 54% revenue growth or margin compression would trigger a sharp pullback. A sharp rise in used‑car supply or a shift to in‑person buying could erode the platform’s convenience advantage, and the 57% free‑cash‑flow growth implied by the reverse DCF is far above the 54% revenue growth, meaning the stock is already assuming near‑term optimism that may not materialize.
Horizon
1-3 yr $82.83 (20-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $121.26 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $179.89 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CVNA vs the Top Picks average

PillarCVNABook avgDiff
Quality0.680.84-0.16
Growth0.940.84+0.10
Value0.490.78-0.29

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+10.2 over 46 daily scores
From 57.7 (Jun 22) → 67.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-2.1%
90-day change-8.7%
Forward EPS estimate$2.26

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CVNA to earn is materially lower (-8.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
28
Position size
$1,957
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$52.43
25% below $69.91
$ at risk if stopped
$489.37
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest CVNA developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Carvana Co. (CVNA): score, valuation & FAQ

Carvana Co. (CVNA) is a Auto & Truck Dealerships company that scores 67.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and PEG (B+). On valuation, CVNA sits about 377% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 58% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CVNA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CVNA 67.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Carvana Co.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CVNA score 67.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CVNA earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CVNA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $69.91, CVNA sits about 377% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 58% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 37.0x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CVNA?

The high beta of 3.49 and debt‑to‑equity of 1.11 expose Carvana to market volatility and leverage risk; a 36.8 P/E multiple indicates investors are already pricing in significant upside, so any slowdown in the 54% revenue growth or margin compression would trigger a sharp pullback. A sharp rise in used‑car supply or a shift to in‑person buying could erode the platform’s convenience advantage, and the 57% free‑cash‑flow growth implied by the reverse DCF is far above the 54% revenue growth, meaning the stock is already assuming near‑term optimism that may not materialize.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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