Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CTOS analysis

Custom Truck One Source, Inc.Rental & Leasing Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

CTOS
Custom Truck One Source, Inc. · Rental & Leasing Services
FCF-$226mF
Rev+4.1%C+
D/E3.12D
P/S1.5xB+
PEG0.79A-
43.3Score
$9.79$2.2B
1Y Target$13.33Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$23.32Compound horizon
10Y Target$41.68Long-dated conviction
FCF-$226mTTM · 06/26
F
FCF is negative (-$226m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+4.1%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +4.1% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E3.12
D
D/E 3.12 — most levered decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
P/S1.5x
B+
P/S 1.5x — below the Industrials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG0.79est.
A-
PEG 0.79 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 43.3
Quality31.1
Growth44.4
Value58.6
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
20% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability-3% · Fgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC5.2% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Rental & Leasing Services · market cap $2.2b. 20% off the 52-week high of $12.23. PEG 0.79 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $13.33 (implying +36% upside).
Moat
Higher-variance name — the moat signals on the quantitative card are modest, so the durability case rests on execution (turning current growth into durable earnings power) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than an entrenched competitive position.
Risk
D/E 3.12 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$226m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 108.8x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating.
Horizon
1-3 yr $13.33 (6-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $23.32 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $41.68 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CTOS vs the Top Picks average

PillarCTOSBook avgDiff
Quality0.310.84-0.53
Growth0.440.84-0.40
Value0.590.78-0.20

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+11.5 over 46 daily scores
From 31.8 (Jun 22) → 43.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+12.0%
90-day change+12.0%
Forward EPS estimate$0.31

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CTOS to earn is materially higher (+12.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
204
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$7.34
25% below $9.79
$ at risk if stopped
$499.29
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS): score, valuation & FAQ

Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS) is a Rental & Leasing Services company that scores 43.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-) and P/S (B+), while D/E (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is CTOS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CTOS 43.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A-) and P/S (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Custom Truck One Source, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CTOS score 43.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CTOS earns its highest marks on PEG (A-) and P/S (B+), and is held back by D/E (D) and FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CTOS overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for CTOS — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in CTOS?

D/E 3.12 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$226m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Trailing P/E 108.8x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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