Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CSTM analysis

Constellium SEAluminum. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

CSTM
Constellium SE · Aluminum
FCF$171mC
Rev+20.1%A-
D/E1.53D
P/E7.0xA
PEG0.40A
59.1Score
$27.04$3.7B
1Y Target$38.28Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$48.32Compound horizon
10Y Target$61.97Long-dated conviction
FCF$171mTTM
C
FCF $171m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+20.1%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +20.1% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E1.53
D
D/E 1.53 — most levered decile in Basic Materials (≈95th pctile)
P/E7.0x
A
P/E 7.0 — cheapest decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.40
A
PEG 0.40 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 59.1
Quality60.8
Growth42.4
Value80.2
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
27% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value153% aboveest. fair value ~$11
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~23% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Aluminum · market cap $3.7b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $36.99 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +20%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.40 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 5 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $38.28 (implying +42% upside).
Moat
ROE 39% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Beta 1.57 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Net margin 4.9% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $38.28 (5-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $48.32 at ~12% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $61.97 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CSTM vs the Top Picks average

PillarCSTMBook avgDiff
Quality0.610.84-0.23
Growth0.420.84-0.42
Value0.800.78in line

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+1.3 over 46 daily scores
From 57.8 (Jun 22) → 59.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-4.3%
90-day change-5.4%
Forward EPS estimate$2.79

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CSTM to earn is materially lower (-5.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
73
Position size
$1,974
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$20.28
25% below $27.04
$ at risk if stopped
$493.48
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Constellium SE (CSTM): score, valuation & FAQ

Constellium SE (CSTM) is a Aluminum company that scores 59.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), PEG (A) and Rev (A-), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CSTM sits about 153% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 23% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CSTM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CSTM 59.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A), PEG (A) and Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Constellium SE's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CSTM score 59.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CSTM earns its highest marks on P/E (A), PEG (A) and Rev (A-), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CSTM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $27.04, CSTM sits about 153% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 23% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 7.0x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CSTM?

Beta 1.57 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Net margin 4.9% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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