Bull Rankings model

Constellium SE (CSTM) stock analysis

Aluminum. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CSTM
Constellium SE · Aluminum
65.0Score
$25.81Oct 9 close$3.5B
1Y Target$34.76Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$43.88Compound horizon
10Y Target$56.28Long-dated conviction
FCF$218mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $218m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+15.2%FY YoY
B+
Revenue +15.2% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E1.53
D
D/E 1.53 — most levered decile in Basic Materials (≈95th pctile)
P/E6.7x
A
P/E 6.7 — cheapest decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.40
A
PEG 0.40 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 65
Quality74.6
Growth50.0
Value73.6
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
30% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value71% aboveest. fair value ~$15
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 16% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~-0% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Aluminum · market cap $3.5b. Down 30% from 52-week high of $36.99 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.40 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 5 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $34.76 (implying +35% upside).
Moat
ROE 53% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Down 30% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.57 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $34.76 (5-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $43.88 at ~11% CAGR — buyback-driven per-share compounding. 10 yr $56.28 if the moat survives secular pressure.

CSTM vs the Top Picks average

PillarCSTMBook avgDiff
Quality7583-8
Growth5089-39
Value7476-2

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+7.2 over 80 daily scores
From 57.8 (Jun 22) → 65.0 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CSTM at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD65.0/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY74.6GROWTH50.0VALUE73.6Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~16% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$14.1–$15.8FAIR-VALUE RANGE$25.8PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$15.1 · price $25.8 is 71% above it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+78%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100CSTM 65.0Top 18% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+4.8%
90-day change+0.9%
Forward EPS estimate$2.93

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CSTM to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
77
Position size
$1,987
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$19.36
25% below $25.81
$ at risk if stopped
$496.84
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Constellium SE (CSTM): score, valuation & FAQ

Constellium SE (CSTM) is an Aluminum company that scores 65 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), PEG (A) and Rev (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CSTM sits about 71% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 16% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is CSTM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CSTM 65 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A), PEG (A) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Constellium SE's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CSTM score 65 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 74.6 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CSTM earns its highest marks on P/E (A), PEG (A) and Rev (B+), and is held back by D/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CSTM is measured against Aluminum peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CSTM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $25.81, CSTM sits about 71% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 16% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 6.7x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CSTM?

Down 30% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.57 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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