Bull Rankings model

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF) stock analysis

Food Distribution. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. · Food Distribution
43.6Score
$114.32Oct 9 close$4.7B
1Y Target$122.00Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$178.62Compound horizon
10Y Target$264.97Long-dated conviction
FCF$126mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $126m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+9.4%FY YoY
B
Revenue +9.4% — at or above S&P median · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E1.46
C+
D/E 1.46 — above the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E54.4x
D
P/E 54.4 — most expensive decile in Consumer Defensive (≈95th pctile)
PEG1.08
B+
PEG 1.08 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 43.6
Quality53.7
Growth80.4
Value19.2
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
4% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value137% aboveest. fair value ~$48
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 37% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~21% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Food Distribution · market cap $4.7b. 4% off the 52-week high of $118.51. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $122.00 (implying +7% upside).
Moat
ROE 15% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 137% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Trailing P/E 54.4x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.44 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Net margin 2.1% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $122.00 (8-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $178.62 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $264.97 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

CHEF vs the Top Picks average

PillarCHEFBook avgDiff
Quality5483-29
Growth8089-9
Value1976-57

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-11.6 over 82 daily scores
From 55.2 (Jun 22) → 43.6 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CHEF at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD43.6/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY53.7GROWTH80.4VALUE19.2Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~37% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$39.4$64FAIR-VALUE RANGE$114PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$48.2 · price $114 is 137% above it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$114LOW $56.1HIGH $119Trading near its 52-week high ($56.1–$119).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+95%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.5%
90-day change+16.4%
Forward EPS estimate$3.06

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CHEF to earn is materially higher (+16.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
17
Position size
$1,943
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$85.74
25% below $114.32
$ at risk if stopped
$485.86
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF): score, valuation & FAQ

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF) is a Food Distribution company that scores 43.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (B+), while P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CHEF sits about 137% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 37% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is CHEF a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CHEF 43.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CHEF score 43.6 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 80.4 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 19.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CHEF earns its highest marks on PEG (B+), and is held back by P/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CHEF is measured against Food Distribution peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CHEF overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $114.32, CHEF sits about 137% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 37% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 54.4x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CHEF?

Trailing P/E 54.4x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.44 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Net margin 2.1% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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