The Bull Rankings scorecard — our quality-growth score is 54.8 / 100, built from three pillars scored 0–100: Quality 62, Growth 50, Value 54 (valuation is judged against sector peers). At today's price, our reverse-DCF read says the market is implicitly betting on free-cash-flow growth of about 16% a year next year, fading to 3% a year by year ten — a gauge of how much optimism is already in the stock.
The thesis
Coeur Mining’s $21.59 price today assumes a 16% annual free-cash-flow growth (in year one, slowing to 3% a year by year ten), per our reverse-DCF. That’s a modest ask next to the 117.3% FY YoY revenue surge the company posted in the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Yet it’s anchored by the 26.8% profit margin and 8.2% ROE that power its strongest model pillar—Quality at 62—while the weakest, Growth at 50, reflects our cap on cyclical miners. The stock is trading on faith in future cash generation, not the headline growth it just printed.
What the business actually is
Coeur Mining digs gold and silver from five operating mines: Palmarejo and Las Chispas in Mexico, Rochester in Nevada, Kensington in Alaska, and Wharf in South Dakota, plus the Silvertip project in British Columbia. It sells doré and concentrates to refiners and smelters. Gold and silver dominate revenue; zinc and lead by-products add a small but steady tail. The Las Chispas acquisition and the Rochester expansion are the engines behind the latest surge.
Why it can (or can't) keep compounding
The company’s edge is visible in the numbers. A 26.8% profit margin is strong for a precious-metals miner, a product of high-grade ore and lean processing costs. The 0.07 debt-to-equity ratio leaves room to fund growth without leaning on equity issuance—though our model notes dilution risk because the firm has used shares to finance expansion. Its sales track spot metal prices, so the real edge is ore quality and cost control, which are hard to replicate without comparable deposits. Our Quality score of 62 reflects these pillars, while Growth’s 50 warns that ore grades and gold prices remain the ultimate arbiters.
The valuation question
With a PE TTM of 18.1 and a market cap of $22.2b, CDE is trading 22% below its 52-week high of $27.77 and 78% above its low of $12.05. Analysts, on average, see a $23.32 target, a modest premium to today’s quote. Our reverse-DCF is more measured: it embeds 16% annual free-cash-flow growth (in year one, slowing to 3% a year by year ten). That rate is far below the 117.3% revenue jump the company just reported, so the market expects the surge to cool into steadier double-digit cash-flow growth.
The bear case
Our model’s “Diluting shareholders” signal is the sharpest red flag; much of it reflects shares issued to buy SilverCrest. Insider selling adds to the caution: the CFO, Thomas Whelan, and board member Kenneth Thompson each unloaded over $100k of stock in late August. Add the Growth score of 50 and the “Cyclical growth” caution, and a pullback in gold prices or a failure to replace depleted ore grades could quickly compress the 26.8% margin and derail the 16% growth path the stock now assumes.
What would change our mind
Two things would flip the thesis. First, a drop in the Quality pillar below 55—triggered by leverage creeping above 0.20 or falling returns—would erase the cash-flow cushion. Second, margin compression below 20% would confirm cost inflation or lower-grade ore and validate the dilution concern. On the upside, a new high-grade discovery that keeps cash flow growing faster than the 16% the price implies would vindicate today’s price. Until one of those lines is crossed, the stock is trading on hope, not arithmetic.