Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CAVA analysis

CAVA Group, Inc.Restaurants. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Restaurants
CAVA
CAVA Group, Inc. · Restaurants
FCF$26mC-
Rev+22.4%A-
D/E0.62B+
P/E130.8xD
PEG3.73D
39.6Score
$71.93$8.4B
1Y Target$84.79Analyst consensus · 24 analysts
5Y Target$124.14Compound horizon
10Y Target$184.16Long-dated conviction
FCF$26mTTM
C-
FCF $26m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev+22.4%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +22.4% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.62
B+
D/E 0.62 — below the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E130.8x
D
P/E 130.8 — most expensive decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈95th pctile)
PEG3.73est.
D
PEG 3.73 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 39.6
Quality48.2
Growth94.1
Value13.6
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
27% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value2107% aboveest. fair value ~$3
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding above 60% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC5.2% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Restaurants · market cap $8.4b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $98.79 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +22%, comfortably above the S&P median. 24 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $84.79 (implying +18% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
Trailing P/E 130.8x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.75 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. ROE 8% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $84.79 (24-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $124.14 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $184.16 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CAVA vs the Top Picks average

PillarCAVABook avgDiff
Quality0.480.84-0.36
Growth0.940.87+0.07
Value0.140.76-0.62

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-0.7 over 48 daily scores
From 40.3 (Jun 22) → 39.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.7%
90-day change-2.6%
Forward EPS estimate$0.74

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CAVA to earn is drifting lower (-2.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
27
Position size
$1,942
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$53.95
25% below $71.93
$ at risk if stopped
$485.53
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA): score, valuation & FAQ

CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) is a Restaurants company that scores 39.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-) and D/E (B+), while P/E (D) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CAVA sits about 2107% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade.

Is CAVA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CAVA 39.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A-) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of CAVA Group, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CAVA score 39.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CAVA earns its highest marks on Rev (A-) and D/E (B+), and is held back by P/E (D) and PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CAVA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $71.93, CAVA sits about 2107% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade. It trades at a 130.8x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CAVA?

Trailing P/E 130.8x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.75 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. ROE 8% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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