Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BURL analysis

Burlington Stores, Inc.Apparel Retail. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Retail
BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc. · Apparel Retail
FCF$383mC
Rev+10.6%B
D/E3.20C
P/E33.6xC
PEG0.92B+
62.2Score
$330.64$20.8B
1Y Target$386.00Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$565.14Compound horizon
10Y Target$838.35Long-dated conviction
FCF$383mTTM
C
FCF $383m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+10.6%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +10.6% — at or above S&P median
D/E3.20
C
D/E 3.20 — more levered than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E33.6x
C
P/E 33.6 — expensive vs Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.92
B+
PEG 0.92 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 62.2
Quality57.4
Growth81.9
Value51.2
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
13% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value274% aboveest. fair value ~$88
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~48% a year for the next decade — vs the ~17% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability53% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Apparel Retail · market cap $20.8b. 13% off the 52-week high of $378.33. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.92 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $386.00 (implying +17% upside).
Moat
ROE 34% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
D/E 3.20 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Beta 1.47 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 34x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $386.00 (16-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $565.14 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $838.35 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BURL vs the Top Picks average

PillarBURLBook avgDiff
Quality0.570.84-0.26
Growth0.820.87-0.05
Value0.510.76-0.24

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.7 over 48 daily scores
From 61.5 (Jun 22) → 62.2 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.4%
90-day change+0.7%
Forward EPS estimate$13.85

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BURL to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
6
Position size
$1,984
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$247.98
25% below $330.64
$ at risk if stopped
$495.96
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL): score, valuation & FAQ

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) is a Apparel Retail company that scores 62.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (B+). On valuation, BURL sits about 274% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 48% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is BURL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BURL 62.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Burlington Stores, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BURL score 62.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BURL earns its highest marks on PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BURL overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $330.64, BURL sits about 274% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 48% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 33.6x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in BURL?

D/E 3.20 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Beta 1.47 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 34x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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