Ulta Beauty, Inc. — Specialty Retail. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.
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ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc. · Specialty Retail
FCF$1.1bC+
Rev+9.7%B
D/E0.89B
P/E17.3xB+
PEG1.57C+
74.8Score
$460.24$19.8B
1Y Target$623.58Analyst consensus · 24 analysts
5Y Target$912.99Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,354Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.1bTTMC+
FCF $1.1b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+9.7%TTM YoYB
Revenue +9.7% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.89B
D/E 0.89 — near the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E17.3xB+
P/E 17.3 — below the Consumer Cyclical median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.57C+
PEG 1.57 — modest premium; above fair value
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 74.8
Quality0.84
Growth0.83
Value0.60
Why this score
Buying back stock
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
36% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value9% belowest. fair value ~$508
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability72% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC35.4% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Specialty Retail · market cap $19.8b. Down 36% from 52-week high of $714.97 — deep drawdown territory. 24 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $623.58 (implying +35% upside).
Moat
ROE 46% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 95% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 36% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $623.58 (24-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $912.99 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,354 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Position sizing · ULTA
$
%
%
Shares to buy
4
Position size
$1,841
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$345.18
25% below $460.24
$ at risk if stopped
$460.24
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA): score, valuation & FAQ
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is a Specialty Retail company that scores 74.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+). On valuation, ULTA sits about 9% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety).
Is ULTA a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores ULTA 74.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does ULTA score 74.8 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ULTA earns its highest marks on P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is ULTA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $460.24, ULTA sits about 9% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety). It trades at a 17.3x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in ULTA?
Down 36% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.