Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

URBN analysis

Urban Outfitters, Inc.Apparel Retail. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

URBN
Urban Outfitters, Inc. · Apparel Retail
FCF$150mC
Rev+11.2%B
D/E0.46B+
P/E14.3xA-
PEG1.38B
68.4Score
$74.24$6.4B
1Y Target$87.69Analyst consensus · 13 analysts
5Y Target$110.71Compound horizon
10Y Target$141.98Long-dated conviction
FCF$150mTTM
C
FCF $150m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+11.2%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +11.2% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.46
B+
D/E 0.46 — below the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E14.3x
A-
P/E 14.3 — cheaper than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.38
B
PEG 1.38 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 68.4
Quality75.1
Growth85.2
Value50.1
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
12% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value199% aboveest. fair value ~$25
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~36% a year for the next decade — vs the ~9% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability48% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC16.9% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Apparel Retail · market cap $6.4b. 12% off the 52-week high of $84.35. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 13 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $87.69 (implying +18% upside).
Moat
ROE 18% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $87.69 (13-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $110.71 at ~8% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $141.98 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

URBN vs the Top Picks average

PillarURBNBook avgDiff
Quality0.750.84-0.09
Growth0.850.84in line
Value0.500.78-0.28

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+2.9 over 47 daily scores
From 65.5 (Jun 22) → 68.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.5%
90-day change+1.9%
Forward EPS estimate$6.80

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect URBN to earn is drifting higher (+1.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
26
Position size
$1,930
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$55.68
25% below $74.24
$ at risk if stopped
$482.56
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN): score, valuation & FAQ

Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) is a Apparel Retail company that scores 68.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and D/E (B+). On valuation, URBN sits about 199% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 36% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is URBN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores URBN 68.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Urban Outfitters, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does URBN score 68.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). URBN earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is URBN overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $74.24, URBN sits about 199% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 36% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 14.3x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in URBN?

Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Store Retail stocks by score

All Consumer Cyclical rankings →

Analyze another ticker →