Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BTU analysis

Peabody Energy CorporationThermal Coal. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

BTU
Peabody Energy Corporation · Thermal Coal
FCF-$192mF
Rev-0.7%D+
D/E0.13A
P/S0.9xA-
PEG
13.0Score
$29.44$3.6B
1Y Target$30.75Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$53.78Compound horizon
10Y Target$96.12Long-dated conviction
FCF-$192mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$192m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev-0.7%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -0.7% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E0.13
A
D/E 0.13 — least levered decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
P/S0.9x
A-
P/S 0.9x — cheaper than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 13
Quality30.6
Growth14.1
Value5.1
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
28% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
ROIC-5.4% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Thermal Coal · market cap $3.6b. Down 28% from 52-week high of $41.14 — deep drawdown territory. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $30.75 (implying +4% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$192m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -5.3%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -7% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $30.75 (6-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $53.78 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $96.12 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BTU vs the Top Picks average

PillarBTUBook avgDiff
Quality0.310.83-0.53
Growth0.140.87-0.73
Value0.050.76-0.71

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-4.8 over 49 daily scores
From 17.8 (Jun 22) → 13.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

BTU at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD13.0/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY30.6GROWTH14.1VALUE5.1
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100BTU 13.0Ranks above 2% of 1,827 scored names.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+62%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$29.4$16.5 LOWHIGH $41.1Trading at the 53rd percentile of its 52-week range ($16.5–$41.1).

Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.6%
90-day change+2.6%
Forward EPS estimate$2.84

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BTU to earn is drifting higher (+2.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
67
Position size
$1,972
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$22.08
25% below $29.44
$ at risk if stopped
$493.12
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest BTU developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU): score, valuation & FAQ

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is a Thermal Coal company that scores 13 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A) and P/S (A-), while Rev (D+) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is BTU a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BTU 13 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A) and P/S (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Peabody Energy Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BTU score 13 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 30.6 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 5.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. BTU earns its highest marks on D/E (A) and P/S (A-), and is held back by Rev (D+) and FCF (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so BTU is measured against Thermal Coal peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is BTU overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for BTU — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in BTU?

Free cash flow is negative (-$192m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -5.3%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -7% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Coal & Uranium stocks by score

All Energy rankings →

Analyze another ticker →