Bull Rankings model

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) stock analysis

Coking Coal. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
HCC
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. · Coking Coal
44.2Score
$93.07Oct 9 close$4.9B
1Y Target$110.00Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$192.39Compound horizon
10Y Target$343.84Long-dated conviction
FCF-$95mTTM · 06/26
F
FCF is negative (-$95m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+37.5%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +37.5% — hypergrowth, top decile · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.10
A-
D/E 0.10 — less debt than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/S*2.9x
B
P/S 2.9x — near the Basic Materials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.36est.
B
PEG 1.36 — acceptable premium for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ analysts' expected EPS growth for next year, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. When earnings are expected to dip this year, the growth used is the yearly average over this year and next, so a recovery isn't counted as growth.

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 44.2
Quality48.8
Growth50.0
Value35.3
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
16% off the 12-month high
Quality signals
Gross profitability19% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC7.4% · C+return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Coking Coal · market cap $4.9b. 16% off the 52-week high of $111.42. Revenue growing +37% — in hypergrowth territory. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $110.00 (implying +18% upside).
Moat
Net margin 13% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$95m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $110.00 (6-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $192.39 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $343.84 — return distribution heavily skewed.

HCC vs the Top Picks average

PillarHCCBook avgDiff
Quality4983-34
Growth5089-39
Value3576-41

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+16.2 over 82 daily scores
From 28.0 (Jun 22) → 44.2 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

HCC at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD44.2/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY48.8GROWTH50.0VALUE35.3
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+41%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$93.1LOW $61.9HIGH $111Trading at the 63rd percentile of its 52-week range ($61.9–$111).
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100HCC 44.2Ranks above 41% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+1.5%
90-day change-3.9%
Forward EPS estimate$8.02

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect HCC to earn is drifting lower (-3.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
21
Position size
$1,954
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$69.80
25% below $93.07
$ at risk if stopped
$488.62
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC): score, valuation & FAQ

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) is a Coking Coal company that scores 44.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and D/E (A-), while FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is HCC a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores HCC 44.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does HCC score 44.2 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 50.0 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 35.3 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. HCC earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and D/E (A-), and is held back by FCF (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so HCC is measured against Coking Coal peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is HCC overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for HCC — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in HCC?

Free cash flow is negative (-$95m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

More Coal & Uranium stocks by score

All Energy rankings →

Analyze another ticker →