Bull Rankings model

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) stock analysis

Coking Coal. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. · Coking Coal
17.0Score
$181.57Oct 9 close$2.3B
1Y Target$186.67Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
5Y Target$326.48Compound horizon
10Y Target$583.48Long-dated conviction
FCF-$1mTTM · 06/26
F
FCF is negative (-$1m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev-28.0%FY YoY
F
Revenue -28.0% — severe decline · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.01
A
D/E 0.01 — least levered decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
P/S*1.1x
B+
P/S 1.1x — below the Basic Materials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — no positive earnings to base it on

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

* PEG n/a — no positive earnings to base it on

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 17
Quality37.0
Growth14.1
Value9.4
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
28% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Coking Coal · market cap $2.3b. Down 28% from 52-week high of $253.82 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -28% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 3 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $186.67 (implying +3% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$1m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Revenue contracting -28% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Currently unprofitable (margin -2.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $186.67 (3-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $326.48 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $583.48 — return distribution heavily skewed.

AMR vs the Top Picks average

PillarAMRBook avgDiff
Quality3783-46
Growth1489-75
Value976-67

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-16.4 over 81 daily scores
From 33.4 (Jun 22) → 17.0 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

AMR at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD17.0/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY37.0GROWTH14.1VALUE9.4
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100AMR 17.0Ranks above 6% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$182LOW $134HIGH $254Trading at the 40th percentile of its 52-week range ($134–$254).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+9%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change-15.7%
Forward EPS estimate$18.26

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AMR to earn is materially lower (-15.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
11
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$136.18
25% below $181.57
$ at risk if stopped
$499.32
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR): score, valuation & FAQ

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) is a Coking Coal company that scores 17 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A) and P/S (B+), while FCF (F) and Rev (F) rate weaker.

Is AMR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AMR 17 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A) and P/S (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AMR score 17 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 37.0 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 9.4 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. AMR earns its highest marks on D/E (A) and P/S (B+), and is held back by FCF (F) and Rev (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so AMR is measured against Coking Coal peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is AMR overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for AMR — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in AMR?

Free cash flow is negative (-$1m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Revenue contracting -28% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Currently unprofitable (margin -2.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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