Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AMR analysis

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.Coking Coal. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. · Coking Coal
FCF$22mC-
Rev-19.1%F
D/E0.01A
P/S0.9xA-
PEG
31.7Score
$142.01$1.8B
1Y Target$169.80Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
5Y Target$296.98Compound horizon
10Y Target$530.75Long-dated conviction
FCF$22mTTM
C-
FCF $22m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev-19.1%TTM YoY
F
Revenue -19.1% — severe decline
D/E0.01
A
D/E 0.01 — least levered decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
P/S0.9x
A-
P/S 0.9x — cheaper than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 31.7
Quality0.37
Growth0.30
Value0.28
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
44% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value136% aboveest. fair value ~$60
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~36% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC-1.6% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Coking Coal · market cap $1.8b. Down 44% from 52-week high of $253.82 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -19% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 3 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $169.80 (implying +20% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Revenue contracting -19% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Currently unprofitable (margin -1.8%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 44% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $169.80 (3-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $296.98 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $530.75 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

AMR vs the Top Picks average

PillarAMRBook avgDiff
Quality0.370.83-0.45
Growth0.300.91-0.61
Value0.280.75-0.46

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-1.7 over 34 daily scores
From 33.4 (Jun 22) → 31.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
14
Position size
$1,988
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$106.51
25% below $142.01
$ at risk if stopped
$497.05
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR): score, valuation & FAQ

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) is a Coking Coal company that scores 31.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A) and P/S (A-), while FCF (C-) and Rev (F) rate weaker. On valuation, AMR sits about 136% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 36% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is AMR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AMR 31.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A) and P/S (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AMR score 31.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AMR earns its highest marks on D/E (A) and P/S (A-), and is held back by FCF (C-) and Rev (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AMR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $142.01, AMR sits about 136% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 36% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AMR?

Revenue contracting -19% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Currently unprofitable (margin -1.8%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 44% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

More Coal & Uranium stocks by score

All Energy rankings →

Analyze another ticker →