★
CNR
Core Natural Resources Inc · Energy
FCF$242mC
Rev+58.3%A
D/E0.11A-
P/S1.0xA-
PEG——
77Score
$84.071Y Target$113.49Near-term target
5Y Target$169.09Compound horizon
10Y Target$440.01Long-dated conviction
FCF$242mTTM · 03/26C
FCF $242m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+58.3%TTM YoYA
Revenue +58.3% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.11totalA-
D/E 0.11 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/S1.0xA-
P/S 1.0x — cheap for any tech/growth name
PEG—proxy—
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Energy · market cap $4.2b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $114.80 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +58% — in hypergrowth territory.
Moat
Speculative bucket — the moat thesis is forward-looking; without proven margin structure or capital efficiency yet, the durability argument is about IP / network effects / first-mover position that the company hasn't fully monetized.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -1.5%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -2% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $113.49 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $169.09 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $440.01 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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Position sizing · CNR
Shares to buy
23
Position size
$1,934
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$63.05
25% below $84.07
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.