Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ELF analysis

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.Household & Personal Products. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

ELF
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. · Household & Personal Products
FCF$280mC
Rev+31.2%A
D/E0.80B
P/E104.0xD
PEG1.37B
56.3Score
$101.94$6.0B
1Y Target$97.75Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$143.12Compound horizon
10Y Target$212.30Long-dated conviction
FCF$280mTTM
C
FCF $280m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+31.2%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +31.2% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.80
B
D/E 0.80 — near the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E104.0x
D
P/E 104.0 — most expensive decile in Consumer Defensive (≈95th pctile)
PEG1.37
B
PEG 1.37 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 56.3
Quality47.4
Growth93.9
Value40.1
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
32% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value134% aboveest. fair value ~$44
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~28% a year for the next decade — vs the ~6% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability53% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC5.0% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Household & Personal Products · market cap $6.0b. Down 32% from 52-week high of $150.99 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +31% — in hypergrowth territory. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $97.75 (implying -4% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
Trailing P/E 104.0x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Down 32% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.39 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $97.75 (16-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $143.12 at ~7% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $212.30 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ELF vs the Top Picks average

PillarELFBook avgDiff
Quality0.470.84-0.37
Growth0.940.84+0.10
Value0.400.78-0.38

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+3.0 over 47 daily scores
From 53.3 (Jun 22) → 56.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+4.3%
90-day change+4.6%
Forward EPS estimate$3.83

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ELF to earn is drifting higher (+4.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
19
Position size
$1,937
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$76.45
25% below $101.94
$ at risk if stopped
$484.21
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF): score, valuation & FAQ

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is a Household & Personal Products company that scores 56.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), while P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, ELF sits about 134% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 28% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ELF a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ELF 56.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A). A score is a quantitative screen of e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ELF score 56.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ELF earns its highest marks on Rev (A), and is held back by P/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ELF overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $101.94, ELF sits about 134% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 28% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 104.0x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ELF?

Trailing P/E 104.0x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Down 32% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.39 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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