Bull Rankings model

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) stock analysis

Household & Personal Products. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
ELF
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. · Household & Personal Products
49.7Score
$109.23Oct 9 close$6.4B
1Y Target$105.00Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$153.73Compound horizon
10Y Target$228.05Long-dated conviction
FCF$280mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $280m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+24.6%FY YoY
A-
Revenue +24.6% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%) · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.80
B
D/E 0.80 — near the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E108.1x
D
P/E 108.1 — most expensive decile in Consumer Defensive (≈95th pctile)
PEG1.37
B
PEG 1.37 — acceptable premium for growth

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 49.7
Quality47.7
Growth87.1
Value29.6
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
23% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value49% aboveest. fair value ~$73
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 26% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~25% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Household & Personal Products · market cap $6.4b. Down 23% from 52-week high of $141.50 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +25%, comfortably above the S&P median. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $105.00 (implying -4% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income.
Risk
Trailing P/E 108.1x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.60 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Net margin 3.4% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $105.00 (16-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $153.73 at ~7% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $228.05 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

ELF vs the Top Picks average

PillarELFBook avgDiff
Quality4883-35
Growth8789-2
Value3076-46

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-3.6 over 82 daily scores
From 53.3 (Jun 22) → 49.7 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

ELF at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD49.7/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY47.7GROWTH87.1VALUE29.6Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~26% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$57.3$103FAIR-VALUE RANGE$109PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$73.4 · price $109 is 49% above it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-18%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$109LOW $48.8HIGH $142Trading at the 65th percentile of its 52-week range ($48.8–$142).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+1.1%
90-day change+5.8%
Forward EPS estimate$3.87

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ELF to earn is materially higher (+5.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
18
Position size
$1,966
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$81.92
25% below $109.23
$ at risk if stopped
$491.54
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF): score, valuation & FAQ

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is a Household & Personal Products company that scores 49.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-), while P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, ELF sits about 49% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 26% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is ELF a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ELF 49.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ELF score 49.7 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 87.1 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 29.6 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. ELF earns its highest marks on Rev (A-), and is held back by P/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ELF is measured against Household & Personal Products peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is ELF overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $109.23, ELF sits about 49% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 26% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 108.1x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ELF?

Trailing P/E 108.1x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.60 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Net margin 3.4% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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