Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BRSL analysis

Brightstar Lottery PLCGambling. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC · Gambling
FCF-$415mF
Rev-0.0%D+
D/E2.19C
P/S0.8xB+
PEG0.31A
35.9Score
$11.32$2.1B
1Y Target$16.61Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$29.06Compound horizon
10Y Target$51.93Long-dated conviction
FCF-$415mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$415m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev-0.0%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -0.0% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E2.19
C
D/E 2.19 — more levered than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
P/S0.8x
B+
P/S 0.8x — below the Consumer Cyclical median (≈40th pctile)
PEG0.31est.
A
PEG 0.31 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 35.9
Quality57.7
Growth12.2
Value65.9
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Cut its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
39% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability21% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC10.7% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
The bull case hinges on Brightstar's iLottery platform unlocking higher‑margin digital ticket sales across the U.S. and Europe, a segment that scales without the heavy capital outlay of its point‑of‑sale hardware. Management is channeling cash into buybacks while slashing the dividend, a discipline reflected in a stellar PEG of 0.31, a modest PE of 11.9x and an attractive ROE of 16.8% that together signal a cheap, high‑return franchise poised to compound earnings as iLottery adoption accelerates. The thesis rests on sustained digital penetration driving earnings growth beyond the flat FY revenue base.
Moat
Brightstar’s moat derives from its entrenched network of POS machines that reconcile lottery funds for retailers and authorities, creating high switching costs for operators who would need to replace both hardware and the associated transaction‑processing ecosystem. This hardware‑software bundle, combined with proprietary instant‑ticket design and printing services, locks in long‑term contracts with state lotteries and retail partners, protecting margins and limiting new entrants.
Risk
The bear case focuses on the current cash crunch and stagnant top‑line: free cash flow is a negative -$415 m and revenue growth is flat at 0%, while debt‑to‑equity sits at a leveraged 2.19. If the iLottery rollout stalls or regulatory hurdles curb digital ticket adoption, the company could burn cash faster than earnings improve, forcing a dividend reinstatement or dilutive financing that would crush the valuation upside. A breach of the $415 m FCF gap would confirm the downside.
Horizon
1-3 yr $16.61 (8-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $29.06 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $51.93 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BRSL vs the Top Picks average

PillarBRSLBook avgDiff
Quality0.580.83-0.26
Growth0.120.87-0.75
Value0.660.76-0.10

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+11.5 over 51 daily scores
From 24.4 (Jun 22) → 35.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

BRSL at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD35.9/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY57.7GROWTH12.2VALUE65.9
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$11.3$9.9 LOWHIGH $18.6Trading at the 16th percentile of its 52-week range ($9.9–$18.6).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-31%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100BRSL 35.9Ranks above 22% of 1,827 scored names.

Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+8.3%
90-day change-7.6%
Forward EPS estimate$0.72

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BRSL to earn is materially lower (-7.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
176
Position size
$1,992
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$8.49
25% below $11.32
$ at risk if stopped
$498.08
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest BRSL developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL): score, valuation & FAQ

Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) is a Gambling company that scores 35.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A) and P/S (B+), while Rev (D+) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is BRSL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BRSL 35.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by PEG (A) and P/S (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Brightstar Lottery PLC's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BRSL score 35.9 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on value at 65.9 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 12.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. BRSL earns its highest marks on PEG (A) and P/S (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+) and FCF (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so BRSL is measured against Gambling peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is BRSL overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for BRSL — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in BRSL?

The bear case focuses on the current cash crunch and stagnant top‑line: free cash flow is a negative -$415 m and revenue growth is flat at 0%, while debt‑to‑equity sits at a leveraged 2.19. If the iLottery rollout stalls or regulatory hurdles curb digital ticket adoption, the company could burn cash faster than earnings improve, forcing a dividend reinstatement or dilutive financing that would crush the valuation upside. A breach of the $415 m FCF gap would confirm the downside.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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