Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BLDR analysis

Builders FirstSource, Inc.Building Products & Equipment. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Housing & Homebuilders
BLDR
Builders FirstSource, Inc. · Building Products & Equipment
FCF$639mC+
Rev-9.4%D
D/E1.31C
P/E81.6xD
PEG2.02C
41.1Score
$75.04$8.1B
1Y Target$80.95Analyst consensus · 21 analysts
5Y Target$118.52Compound horizon
10Y Target$175.82Long-dated conviction
FCF$639mTTM
C+
FCF $639m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev-9.4%TTM YoY
D
Revenue -9.4% — meaningful contraction
D/E1.31
C
D/E 1.31 — more levered than most Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E81.6x
D
P/E 81.6 — most expensive decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
PEG2.02
C
PEG 2.02 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 41.1
Quality0.53
Growth0.35
Value0.38
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
50% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value28% belowest. fair value ~$104
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~6% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability37% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC7.8% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Building Products & Equipment · market cap $8.1b. Down 50% from 52-week high of $151.03 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -9% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 21 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $80.95 (implying +8% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
Trailing P/E 81.6x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Revenue contracting -9% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Down 50% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $80.95 (21-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $118.52 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $175.82 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BLDR vs the Top Picks average

PillarBLDRBook avgDiff
Quality0.530.83-0.30
Growth0.350.91-0.56
Value0.380.75-0.36

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-3.0 over 34 daily scores
From 44.1 (Jun 22) → 41.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
26
Position size
$1,951
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$56.28
25% below $75.04
$ at risk if stopped
$487.76
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR): score, valuation & FAQ

Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) is a Building Products & Equipment company that scores 41.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags Rev (D) and P/E (D) as weaker areas. On valuation, BLDR sits about 28% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is BLDR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BLDR 41.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BLDR score 41.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BLDR grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by Rev (D) and P/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BLDR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $75.04, BLDR sits about 28% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 81.6x× P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in BLDR?

Trailing P/E 81.6x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Revenue contracting -9% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Down 50% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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