Gold. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
ARIS
Aris Mining Corporation · Gold
53.9Score
$17.33Oct 9 close$3.6B
1Y Target$18.72Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$23.63Compound horizon
10Y Target$30.30Long-dated conviction
FCF$129mFY · 12/25C
FCF $129m — modest; watch for margin expansion · From the fiscal year ended 12/25 in SEC filings (OCF − CapEx) — this company files no quarterly cash-flow series, so a trailing-twelve-month figure can't be assembled.
Rev+81.7%FY YoYA
Revenue +81.7% — hypergrowth, top decile · Latest fiscal year vs the prior one, from SEC filings — a trailing-twelve-month comparison couldn't be assembled from this company's filings.
D/E0.29B
D/E 0.29 — near the Basic Materials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E12.0xA-
P/E 12.0 — cheaper than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.31est.A
PEG 0.31 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ analysts' expected EPS growth for next year, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. When earnings are expected to dip this year, the growth used is the yearly average over this year and next, so a recovery isn't counted as growth.
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 53.9
Quality59.6
Growth50.0
Value52.6
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
26% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value95% aboveest. fair value ~$9
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 34% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~25% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability20% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC14.4% · B+return on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Gold · market cap $3.6b. Down 26% from 52-week high of $23.29 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +82% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.31 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
FCF converts 163% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Beta 2.08 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. ROE 5% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Horizon
1-3 yr $18.72 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $23.63 at ~6% CAGR — earnings growth has to outrun share dilution. 10 yr $30.30 if the moat survives secular pressure.
ARIS vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
ARIS
Book avg
Diff
Quality
60
83
-23
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
53
76
-23
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · ARIS
Trend
-6.3 over 82 daily scores
From 60.2 (Jun 22) → 53.9 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
ARIS at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.8%
90-day change
-21.0%
Forward EPS estimate
$2.91
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ARIS to earn is materially lower (-21.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · ARIS
$
%
%
Shares to buy
115
Position size
$1,993
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$13.00
25% below $17.33
$ at risk if stopped
$498.24
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) is a Gold company that scores 53.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), PEG (A) and P/E (A-). On valuation, ARIS sits about 95% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 34% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is ARIS a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores ARIS 53.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A), PEG (A) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Aris Mining Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does ARIS score 53.9 on Bull Rankings?
It grades evenly across the three pillars — quality 59.6, growth 50.0, value 52.6 out of 100 — so no single pillar is carrying the score. ARIS earns its highest marks on Rev (A), PEG (A) and P/E (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ARIS is measured against Gold peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is ARIS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $17.33, ARIS sits about 95% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 34% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 12.0x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in ARIS?
Beta 2.08 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. ROE 5% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.