Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ARIS analysis

Aris Mining CorporationGold. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

ARIS
Aris Mining Corporation · Gold
FCF$129mC
Rev+81.7%A
D/E0.29B
P/E14.8xA-
PEG0.38A
63.2Score
$20.86$4.3B
1Y Target$22.53Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$28.44Compound horizon
10Y Target$36.48Long-dated conviction
FCF$129mTTM
C
FCF $129m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+81.7%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +81.7% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.29
B
D/E 0.29 — near the Basic Materials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E14.8x
A-
P/E 14.8 — cheaper than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.38est.
A
PEG 0.38 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 63.2
Quality60.0
Growth50.0
Value84.0
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
10% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value148% aboveest. fair value ~$8
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~41% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability20% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC14.4% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Gold · market cap $4.3b. 10% off the 52-week high of $23.29. Revenue growing +82% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.38 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
FCF converts 163% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Beta 1.94 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. ROE 5% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Horizon
1-3 yr $22.53 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $28.44 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $36.48 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ARIS vs the Top Picks average

PillarARISBook avgDiff
Quality0.600.84-0.24
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.840.78+0.06

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+3.0 over 47 daily scores
From 60.2 (Jun 22) → 63.2 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-17.3%
90-day change-23.3%
Forward EPS estimate$2.89

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ARIS to earn is materially lower (-23.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
95
Position size
$1,982
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$15.64
25% below $20.86
$ at risk if stopped
$495.43
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS): score, valuation & FAQ

Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) is a Gold company that scores 63.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), PEG (A) and P/E (A-). On valuation, ARIS sits about 148% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 41% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ARIS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ARIS 63.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A), PEG (A) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Aris Mining Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ARIS score 63.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ARIS earns its highest marks on Rev (A), PEG (A) and P/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ARIS overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $20.86, ARIS sits about 148% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 41% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 14.8x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ARIS?

Beta 1.94 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. ROE 5% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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