Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CHWY analysis

Chewy, Inc.Internet Retail. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

E-commerce
CHWY
Chewy, Inc. · Internet Retail
FCF$585mC+
Rev+6.1%C+
D/E1.23B
P/E40.2xC
PEG0.48A
69.1Score
$24.50$10.0B
1Y Target$30.77Analyst consensus · 22 analysts
5Y Target$45.05Compound horizon
10Y Target$66.84Long-dated conviction
FCF$585mTTM
C+
FCF $585m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+6.1%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +6.1% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E1.23
B
D/E 1.23 — near the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E40.2x
C
P/E 40.2 — expensive vs Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.48
A
PEG 0.48 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 69.1
Quality75.9
Growth55.7
Value78.1
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
44% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value8% aboveest. fair value ~$23
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~14% a year for the next decade — vs the ~20% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability116% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC57.0% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Chewy’s Autoship subscription locks pet owners into a high‑frequency, low‑friction buying cycle, turning a commoditized market into a sticky revenue engine. The business backs that claim with a 60.2% ROE, $585 m of free cash flow and a 6.1% YoY revenue growth—all at a market cap of only $9.6 b. Our Bull Rankings model gives CHWY a 72.6/100 quality‑growth score, with Value as its strongest pillar, implying the stock is already priced for a 13% annual FCF expansion that far outpaces the 6% top‑line growth, so the upside rests on the Autoship compounding effect accelerating faster than history shows.
Moat
Autoship creates a multi‑year lock‑in that raises switching costs for pet owners who value the convenience of scheduled deliveries and the ability to bundle food, treats, and medications. This recurring‑revenue engine fuels the 60.2% ROE by allowing Chewy to leverage its scale for better supplier terms and modest pricing power in the pet‑supplies category, a advantage a pure‑brick competitor cannot replicate quickly.
Risk
The stock trades at a lofty PE of 39 while revenue is only growing 6.1% YoY, suggesting the market is over‑paying for modest top‑line expansion; a slowdown or margin squeeze would make the valuation untenable. A debt‑to‑equity of 1.23 and a beta of 1.42 add financial and market volatility risk. The bear case crystallises if quarterly revenue growth falls below 4% and the PE drifts toward 50, at which point the 13% implied FCF growth becomes impossible and the price will capitulate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $30.77 (22-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $45.05 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $66.84 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CHWY vs the Top Picks average

PillarCHWYBook avgDiff
Quality0.760.84-0.08
Growth0.560.87-0.31
Value0.780.76+0.03

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.0 over 48 daily scores
From 74.1 (Jun 22) → 69.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.2%
90-day change-6.5%
Forward EPS estimate$1.83

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CHWY to earn is materially lower (-6.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
81
Position size
$1,985
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$18.38
25% below $24.50
$ at risk if stopped
$496.13
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest CHWY developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Chewy, Inc. (CHWY): score, valuation & FAQ

Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is a Internet Retail company that scores 69.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A). On valuation, CHWY sits about 8% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CHWY a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CHWY 69.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Chewy, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CHWY score 69.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CHWY earns its highest marks on PEG (A). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CHWY overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $24.50, CHWY sits about 8% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 40.2x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CHWY?

The stock trades at a lofty PE of 39 while revenue is only growing 6.1% YoY, suggesting the market is over‑paying for modest top‑line expansion; a slowdown or margin squeeze would make the valuation untenable. A debt‑to‑equity of 1.23 and a beta of 1.42 add financial and market volatility risk. The bear case crystallises if quarterly revenue growth falls below 4% and the PE drifts toward 50, at which point the 13% implied FCF growth becomes impossible and the price will capitulate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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