Airlines. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company · Airlines
32.1Score
$76.43Oct 9 close$2.1B
1Y Target$117.43Analyst consensus · 14 analysts
5Y Target$171.93Compound horizon
10Y Target$255.04Long-dated conviction
FCF$117mTTM · 06/26C
FCF $117m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+3.7%FY YoYC+
Revenue +3.7% — steady but below market-beating range · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E1.60C
D/E 1.60 — more levered than most Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E65.3xC
P/E 65.3 as published, but our filings show a net loss — there are no earnings behind the multiple, so we don't grade it. Judge this one on P/S.
PEG0.85B+
PEG 0.85 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 32.1
Quality32.0
Growth43.7
Value23.5
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
38% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value19% aboveest. fair value ~$64
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 18% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~21% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Airlines · market cap $2.1b. Down 38% from 52-week high of $123.63 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.85 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 14 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $117.43 (implying +54% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
Trailing P/E 65.3x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Down 38% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.54 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $117.43 (14-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $171.93 at ~18% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $255.04 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
ALGT vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
ALGT
Book avg
Diff
Quality
32
83
-51
Growth
44
89
-45
Value
24
76
-52
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · ALGT
Trend
-14.4 over 82 daily scores
From 46.5 (Jun 22) → 32.1 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
ALGT at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-16.0%
90-day change
-18.1%
Forward EPS estimate
$9.85
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ALGT to earn is materially lower (-18.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · ALGT
$
%
%
Shares to buy
26
Position size
$1,987
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$57.32
25% below $76.43
$ at risk if stopped
$496.80
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT): score, valuation & FAQ
Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) is an Airlines company that scores 32.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are PEG (B+). On valuation, ALGT sits about 19% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 18% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is ALGT a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores ALGT 32.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Allegiant Travel Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does ALGT score 32.1 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 43.7 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 23.5 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. ALGT earns its highest marks on PEG (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ALGT is measured against Airlines peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is ALGT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $76.43, ALGT sits about 19% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 18% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 65.3x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in ALGT?
Trailing P/E 65.3x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Down 38% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.54 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.