COMPARE · Reviewed August 3, 2026
ADT vs CXW
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. ADT scored 54.9, CXW scored 50.6 — ADT leads.
Compare another set
Different reporting periods. ADT's fundamentals are as of June 2026, but CXW's are as of March 2026 — a 3-month gap. Growth, margin and valuation figures below therefore describe different windows and aren't strictly like-for-like.
ADT
ADT Inc.
54.9
$7.77 · $5.7B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
4.3
ADT leads
CXW
CoreCivic, Inc.
50.6
$30.20 · $3.0B
fundamentals as of
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
ADT
stronger →← stronger
CXW
69
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
47
52
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
76
46
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
36
ADT is stronger on 2 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
ADT
CXW
$2.0bC+
FCF
$26mC-
+2.1%C
Rev
+12.7%B+
2.21D
D/E
1.02C+
10.8xA
P/E
24.2xB+
2.33C
PEG
1.06B+
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
ADT
CXW
81% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
227% above
decline
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~45%/yr
+409%
1-yr DCF upside
-77%
+430%
5-yr DCF upside
-69%
+460%
10-yr DCF upside
-53%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
ADT
Why this score
- Diluting shareholders
CXW
Why this score
- Buying back stock
The companies
ADTADT Inc.
Why now
Security & Protection Services · market cap $5.7b. 13% off the 52-week high of $8.94. 5 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $8.23 (implying +6% upside).
Moat
ROE 18% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
D/E 2.21 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
CXWCoreCivic, Inc.
Why now
Security & Protection Services · market cap $3.0b. 8% off the 52-week high of $32.69. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. 5 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $36.40 (implying +21% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.