Bull Rankings model

Ambev S.A. (ABEV) stock analysis

Beverages - Brewers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
ABEV
Ambev S.A. · Beverages - Brewers
54.8Score
$3.19Oct 9 close$49.2B
1Y Target$3.35Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$4.90Compound horizon
10Y Target$7.26Long-dated conviction
FCF$4.8bTTM · 06/26
B
FCF $4.8b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev-1.4%FY YoY
D+
Revenue -1.4% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.03
A
D/E 0.03 — least levered decile in Consumer Defensive (≈10th pctile)
P/E16.8x
B+
P/E 16.8 — below the Consumer Defensive median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.98
C+
PEG 1.98 — modest premium; above fair value

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 54.8
Quality88.9
Growth34.7
Value73.1
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
  • Cut its dividend
  • Foreign reporter (BRL)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
8% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value36% belowest. fair value ~$5
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~7% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Beverages - Brewers · market cap $49.2b. 8% off the 52-week high of $3.45. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $3.35 (implying +5% upside).
Moat
Net margin 18% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 18% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 148% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Dividend payout 79% of earnings on a 4.3% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $3.35 (10-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $4.90 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $7.26 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

ABEV vs the Top Picks average

PillarABEVBook avgDiff
Quality8983+6
Growth3589-54
Value7376-3

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+2.4 over 82 daily scores
From 52.4 (Jun 22) → 54.8 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

ABEV at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD54.8/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY88.9GROWTH34.7VALUE73.1Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$4.8$5.3FAIR-VALUE RANGE$3.2PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$5 · price $3.2 is 36% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+51%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$3.2LOW $2.1HIGH $3.5Trading at the 81st percentile of its 52-week range ($2.1–$3.5).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.7%
90-day change-0.1%
Forward EPS estimate$0.21

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ABEV to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
626
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$2.39
25% below $3.19
$ at risk if stopped
$499.24
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Ambev S.A. (ABEV): score, valuation & FAQ

Ambev S.A. (ABEV) is a Beverages - Brewers company that scores 54.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A) and P/E (B+), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, ABEV sits about 36% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is ABEV a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ABEV 54.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Ambev S.A.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ABEV score 54.8 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 88.9 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 34.7 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. ABEV earns its highest marks on D/E (A) and P/E (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ABEV is measured against Beverages - Brewers peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is ABEV overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $3.19, ABEV sits about 36% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 16.8x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ABEV?

Dividend payout 79% of earnings on a 4.3% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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