AA vs the Top Picks average
| Pillar | AA | Book avg | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quality | 52 | 83 | -31 |
| Growth | 50 | 89 | -39 |
| Value | 63 | 76 | -13 |
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
AA at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
| 30-day change | +1.3% |
|---|---|
| 90-day change | -9.9% |
| Forward EPS estimate | $5.87 |
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AA to earn is materially lower (-9.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Alcoa Corporation (AA): score, valuation & FAQ
Alcoa Corporation (AA) is an Aluminum company that scores 55 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, AA sits about 217% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 38% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is AA a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores AA 55 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Alcoa Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does AA score 55 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on value at 63.3 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. AA earns its highest marks on P/E (A-), and is held back by PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so AA is measured against Aluminum peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is AA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $42.20, AA sits about 217% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 38% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 8.9x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in AA?
Down 50% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.74 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.