Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

WING analysis

Wingstop Inc.Restaurants. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

WING
Wingstop Inc. · Restaurants
FCF$128mC
Rev+7.6%B
D/E
P/E30.6xC+
PEG2.06C
65.8Score
$129.49$3.5B
1Y Target$209.19Analyst consensus · 27 analysts
5Y Target$306.27Compound horizon
10Y Target$454.33Long-dated conviction
FCF$128mTTM
C
FCF $128m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+7.6%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +7.6% — at or above S&P median
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E30.6x
C+
P/E 30.6 — above the Consumer Cyclical median (≈75th pctile)
PEG2.06
C
PEG 2.06 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 65.8
Quality0.68
Growth0.84
Value0.50
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Raising its dividend
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
66% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value29% aboveest. fair value ~$101
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~19% a year for the next decade — vs the ~20% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability96% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Why now
Restaurants · market cap $3.5b. Down 66% from 52-week high of $380.00 — deep drawdown territory. 27 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $209.19 (implying +62% upside).
Moat
Net margin 16% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. FCF converts 110% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 66% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Trailing P/E 31x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. ROE -15% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $209.19 (27-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $306.27 at ~19% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $454.33 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

WING vs the Top Picks average

PillarWINGBook avgDiff
Quality0.680.82-0.14
Growth0.840.90-0.06
Value0.500.75-0.25

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+3.4 over 32 daily scores
From 62.6 (Jun 22) → 66.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
15
Position size
$1,942
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$97.12
25% below $129.49
$ at risk if stopped
$485.59
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Wingstop Inc. (WING): score, valuation & FAQ

Wingstop Inc. (WING) is a Restaurants company that scores 65.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

On valuation, WING sits about 29% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 19% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is WING a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores WING 65.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Wingstop Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does WING score 65.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). WING grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is WING overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $129.49, WING sits about 29% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 19% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 30.6x× P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in WING?

Down 66% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Trailing P/E 31x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. ROE -15% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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