Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

W analysis

Wayfair Inc.Internet Retail. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

E-commerce
W
Wayfair Inc. · Internet Retail
FCF$562mC+
Rev+7.5%B
D/E
P/S1.1xB
PEG23.50D
26.7Score
$103.19$14.1B
1Y Target$123.31Analyst consensus · 29 analysts
5Y Target$215.67Compound horizon
10Y Target$385.44Long-dated conviction
FCF$562mTTM
C+
FCF $562m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+7.5%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +7.5% — at or above S&P median
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/S1.1x
B
P/S 1.1x — near the Consumer Cyclical median (≈60th pctile)
PEG23.50
D
PEG 23.50 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 26.7
Quality46.4
Growth42.5
Value9.7
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
14% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value7% aboveest. fair value ~$96
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~16% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability130% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Internet Retail · market cap $14.1b. 14% off the 52-week high of $119.98. 29 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $123.31 (implying +19% upside).
Moat
ROE 12% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -2.5%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Beta 2.98 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. E-commerce competition — Amazon, Walmart, Shein, and Temu have each forced the rest of the category to compete on price, fulfillment speed, or assortment; sustaining margins requires one of those being structurally defended.
Horizon
1-3 yr $123.31 (29-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $215.67 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $385.44 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

W vs the Top Picks average

PillarWBook avgDiff
Quality0.460.84-0.37
Growth0.430.87-0.45
Value0.100.76-0.66

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+2.0 over 46 daily scores
From 24.7 (Jun 22) → 26.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+3.5%
90-day change+3.9%
Forward EPS estimate$3.87

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect W to earn is drifting higher (+3.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
19
Position size
$1,961
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$77.39
25% below $103.19
$ at risk if stopped
$490.15
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Wayfair Inc. (W): score, valuation & FAQ

Wayfair Inc. (W) is a Internet Retail company that scores 26.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags PEG (D) as weaker areas. On valuation, W sits about 7% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is W a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores W 26.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Wayfair Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does W score 26.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). W grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is W overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $103.19, W sits about 7% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in W?

Currently unprofitable (margin -2.5%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Beta 2.98 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. E-commerce competition — Amazon, Walmart, Shein, and Temu have each forced the rest of the category to compete on price, fulfillment speed, or assortment; sustaining margins requires one of those being structurally defended.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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