Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

USFD analysis

US Foods Holding Corp.Food Distribution. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

USFD
US Foods Holding Corp. · Food Distribution
FCF$946mC+
Rev+3.8%C+
D/E1.26C+
P/E33.8xC
PEG0.73A-
60.7Score
$109.62$23.7B
1Y Target$115.88Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$169.65Compound horizon
10Y Target$251.67Long-dated conviction
FCF$946mTTM
C+
FCF $946m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+3.8%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +3.8% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E1.26
C+
D/E 1.26 — above the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E33.8x
C
P/E 33.8 — expensive vs Consumer Defensive peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.73
A-
PEG 0.73 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 60.7
Quality66.3
Growth64.1
Value52.7
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value11% aboveest. fair value ~$99
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~12% a year for the next decade — vs the ~15% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability49% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC12.5% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Food Distribution · market cap $23.7b. Trading near 52-week high of $111.42 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. PEG 0.73 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $115.88 (implying +6% upside).
Moat
ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 130% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 34x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Net margin 1.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $115.88 (16-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $169.65 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $251.67 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

USFD vs the Top Picks average

PillarUSFDBook avgDiff
Quality0.660.84-0.18
Growth0.640.84-0.20
Value0.530.78-0.26

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-1.2 over 47 daily scores
From 61.9 (Jun 22) → 60.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.7%
90-day change+0.1%
Forward EPS estimate$5.52

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect USFD to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
18
Position size
$1,973
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$82.22
25% below $109.62
$ at risk if stopped
$493.29
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD): score, valuation & FAQ

US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) is a Food Distribution company that scores 60.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-). On valuation, USFD sits about 11% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 12% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is USFD a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores USFD 60.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of US Foods Holding Corp.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does USFD score 60.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). USFD earns its highest marks on PEG (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is USFD overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $109.62, USFD sits about 11% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 12% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 33.8x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in USFD?

Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 34x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Net margin 1.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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