Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TWLO analysis

Twilio Inc.Software - Infrastructure. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

TWLO
Twilio Inc. · Software - Infrastructure
FCF$924mC+
Rev+13.7%B+
D/E0.14B+
P/S6.3xC+
PEG0.38A
65.2Score
$218.60$33.2B
1Y Target$202.50Analyst consensus · 31 analysts
5Y Target$354.17Compound horizon
10Y Target$898.17Long-dated conviction
FCF$924mTTM
C+
FCF $924m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+13.7%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +13.7% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.14
B+
D/E 0.14 — below the Technology debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/S6.3x
C+
P/S 6.3x — above the Technology median (≈75th pctile)
PEG0.38
A
PEG 0.38 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 65.2
Quality0.47
Growth0.89
Value0.66
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
8% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value136% aboveest. fair value ~$93
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability27% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC2.2% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Software - Infrastructure · market cap $33.2b. 8% off the 52-week high of $238.48. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.38 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 31 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $202.50 (implying -7% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong. Software economics — recurring revenue, embedded customer workflows, and high gross margin all compound the moat once a base account is won. Switching costs are the lever.
Risk
Net margin 2.0% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 1% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. SaaS displacement — recurring revenue is sticky in good times but accelerates in churn during a downturn as customers consolidate vendors and renegotiate seat counts.
Horizon
1-3 yr $202.50 (31-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $354.17 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $898.17 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Shares to buy
9
Position size
$1,967
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$163.95
25% below $218.60
$ at risk if stopped
$491.85
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Twilio Inc. (TWLO): score, valuation & FAQ

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 65.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). On valuation, TWLO sits about 136% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich).

Is TWLO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TWLO 65.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Twilio Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TWLO score 65.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TWLO earns its highest marks on PEG (A), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TWLO overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $218.60, TWLO sits about 136% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TWLO?

Net margin 2.0% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 1% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. SaaS displacement — recurring revenue is sticky in good times but accelerates in churn during a downturn as customers consolidate vendors and renegotiate seat counts.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

More Technology stocks by score

All Technology rankings →

Analyze another ticker →