Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TWLO analysis

Twilio Inc.Software - Infrastructure. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Cloud & SaaS
TWLO
Twilio Inc. · Software - Infrastructure
FCF$1.0bC+
Rev+17.8%B+
D/E0.12B+
P/E30.8xB
PEG0.39A
62.3Score
$222.59$34.2B
1Y Target$250.08Analyst consensus · 31 analysts
5Y Target$366.14Compound horizon
10Y Target$543.15Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.0bTTM
C+
FCF $1.0b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+17.8%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +17.8% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.12
B+
D/E 0.12 — below the Technology debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E30.8x
B
P/E 30.8 — near the Technology median (≈60th pctile)
PEG0.39
A
PEG 0.39 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 62.3
Quality57.2
Growth64.6
Value65.5
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
14% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value131% aboveest. fair value ~$96
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~32% a year for the next decade — vs the ~15% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability25% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC2.3% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Twilio’s Segment data‑unification platform is the engine that will keep its customer‑engagement APIs expanding, delivering 17.8% YoY revenue growth, 20.6% profit margin and $1.0 B of free cash flow – a rare combination for a pure‑play SaaS growth name. The PEG of 0.39 shows the market is pricing growth far below peers, meaning the stock is still cheap relative to its earnings trajectory. The thesis rests on the ability to compound this revenue stream year after year as more enterprises embed Twilio’s messaging, voice and authentication APIs into their digital experiences.
Moat
Twilio’s moat comes from its deep API integration layer and the Segment data platform, which lock enterprise developers into a single, real‑time customer‑engagement stack. Switching costs are high because each integration embeds Twilio’s SDKs across messaging, voice, email and video, creating a network effect that grows with every new channel. The company’s efficient capital use is reflected in a ROE of 12.8%, indicating strong returns on the modest debt‑to‑equity of 0.12.
Risk
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 30.8 and a beta of 1.38, implying the market is already pricing in a 32% annual free‑cash‑flow growth rate – far above the realistic revenue pace of 17.8% YoY. If Twilio’s growth slows or margins compress, the valuation premium evaporates, and the price could tumble toward its 52‑week low of $98.44. A sustained miss on quarterly revenue growth would be the trigger that validates the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $250.08 (31-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $366.14 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $543.15 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TWLO vs the Top Picks average

PillarTWLOBook avgDiff
Quality0.570.84-0.27
Growth0.650.87-0.23
Value0.660.76-0.10

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-3.1 over 47 daily scores
From 65.4 (Jun 22) → 62.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.2%
90-day change+2.9%
Forward EPS estimate$6.79

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TWLO to earn is drifting higher (+2.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
8
Position size
$1,781
3.6% of portfolio
Stop price
$166.94
25% below $222.59
$ at risk if stopped
$445.18
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Twilio Inc. (TWLO): score, valuation & FAQ

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 62.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). On valuation, TWLO sits about 131% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 32% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TWLO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TWLO 62.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Twilio Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TWLO score 62.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TWLO earns its highest marks on PEG (A), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TWLO overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $222.59, TWLO sits about 131% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 32% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 30.8x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TWLO?

The stock trades at a forward P/E of 30.8 and a beta of 1.38, implying the market is already pricing in a 32% annual free‑cash‑flow growth rate – far above the realistic revenue pace of 17.8% YoY. If Twilio’s growth slows or margins compress, the valuation premium evaporates, and the price could tumble toward its 52‑week low of $98.44. A sustained miss on quarterly revenue growth would be the trigger that validates the bear case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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