1Y Target$17.65Near-term target
5Y Target$19.42Compound horizon
10Y Target$28.55Long-dated conviction
FCF$374mTTM · 03/26CFCF $374m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+54.9%TTM YoYARevenue +54.9% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.20A-D/E 0.20 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet
P/E18.8xBP/E 18.8 — moderate premium, defensible with growth
PEG——PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable
Why now
Software - Infrastructure · market cap $3.5b. Down 28% from 52-week high of $16.78 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +55% — in hypergrowth territory. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $17.65 (implying +46% upside).
Moat
Net margin 16% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 35% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 195% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Horizon
1-3 yr $17.65 (10-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $19.42 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $28.55 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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