1Y Target$522.02Near-term target
5Y Target$428.15Compound horizon
10Y Target$546.50Long-dated conviction
FCF$7.7bTTM · 04/26B+FCF $7.7b — strong cash profile, above most peers · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 04/26).
Rev+10.4%TTM YoYBRevenue +10.4% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.33B+D/E 0.33 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone
P/E19.5xBP/E 19.5 — moderate premium, defensible with growth
PEG0.83B+PEG 0.83 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Why now
Software - Application · market cap $87.5b. Down 61% from 52-week high of $813.70 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +10%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.83 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 32 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $522.02 (implying +63% upside).
Moat
Net margin 22% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 22% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 168% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 61% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Horizon
1-3 yr $522.02 (32-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $428.15 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $546.50 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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