1Y Target$97.70Near-term target
5Y Target$121.06Compound horizon
10Y Target$154.52Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.6bTTM · 03/26C+FCF $1.6b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+7.8%TTM YoYBRevenue +7.8% — at or above S&P median · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E——D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E13.8xB+P/E 13.8 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG1.76proxyC+PEG 1.76 — modest premium; above fair value · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Technology · market cap $12.0b. Down 51% from 52-week high of $184.95 — deep drawdown territory.
Moat
Net margin 17% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 367% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Down 51% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $97.70 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $121.06 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $154.52 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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