Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ADSK analysis

Autodesk, Inc.Software - Application. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

ADSK
Autodesk, Inc. · Software - Application
FCF$2.7bB
Rev+17.5%B+
D/E0.85C+
P/E30.1xB
PEG0.80A-
85.7Score
$208.58$44.0B
1Y Target$318.53Analyst consensus · 33 analysts
5Y Target$466.36Compound horizon
10Y Target$691.82Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.7bTTM
B
FCF $2.7b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+17.5%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +17.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.85
C+
D/E 0.85 — above the Technology debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E30.1x
B
P/E 30.1 — near the Technology median (≈60th pctile)
PEG0.80
A-
PEG 0.80 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 85.7
Quality0.88
Growth0.91
Value0.79
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
37% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value10% aboveest. fair value ~$189
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability57% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC26.2% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Autodesk’s subscription‑driven BIM ecosystem – anchored by Revit, Autodesk Build and BIM Collaborate – is cementing multi‑year contracts that will compound revenue at double‑digit rates. The business is delivering 17.5% YoY revenue growth, a staggering 45.9% ROE that stems from pricing power in the AEC software niche, and a 0.8 PEG ratio that signals the market is still discounting its growth story. The thesis rests on the relentless expansion of cloud‑based design workflows that lock in recurring cash flow for the next decade.
Moat
The integrated BIM suite creates massive switching costs: once a firm’s projects are built in Revit and managed in Autodesk Build, data migration is prohibitively expensive, locking customers into Autodesk’s platform. This stickiness, combined with a subscription model that yields >19% profit margins, fuels the 45.9% ROE and gives Autodesk pricing leverage that rivals cannot replicate quickly.
Risk
The stock trades at a lofty 30.3 P/E and a beta of 1.32, exposing it to market volatility and implying growth expectations may already be baked in; a slowdown in construction spending could trim the 17.5% revenue growth runway, while the 0.85 debt‑to‑equity ratio limits financial flexibility. A miss on quarterly guidance or a shift to lower‑cost competitor tools would trigger a re‑rating and push the price back toward its 52‑week low of $185.5. The bear case is confirmed if revenue growth falls below 12% YoY and the P/E compresses toward the sector median.
Horizon
1-3 yr $318.53 (33-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $466.36 at ~17% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $691.82 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Shares to buy
9
Position size
$1,877
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$156.44
25% below $208.58
$ at risk if stopped
$469.31
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK): score, valuation & FAQ

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) is a Software - Application company that scores 85.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a strong reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, ADSK sits about 10% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich).

Is ADSK a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ADSK 85.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a strong reading. That is driven by PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Autodesk, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ADSK score 85.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ADSK earns its highest marks on PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ADSK overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $208.58, ADSK sits about 10% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich). It trades at a 30.1x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ADSK?

The stock trades at a lofty 30.3 P/E and a beta of 1.32, exposing it to market volatility and implying growth expectations may already be baked in; a slowdown in construction spending could trim the 17.5% revenue growth runway, while the 0.85 debt‑to‑equity ratio limits financial flexibility. A miss on quarterly guidance or a shift to lower‑cost competitor tools would trigger a re‑rating and push the price back toward its 52‑week low of $185.5. The bear case is confirmed if revenue growth falls below 12% YoY and the P/E compresses toward the sector median.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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