1Y Target$152.85Near-term target
5Y Target$182.02Compound horizon
10Y Target$267.56Long-dated conviction
FCF$421mTTM · 03/26CFCF $421m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+10.5%TTM YoYBRevenue +10.5% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.11A-D/E 0.11 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet
P/E24.1xBP/E 24.1 — moderate premium, defensible with growth
PEG1.19B+PEG 1.19 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Why now
Software - Application · market cap $6.1b. Down 43% from 52-week high of $197.91 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 20 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $152.85 (implying +35% upside).
Moat
Net margin 15% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 22% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 163% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 43% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. AI-native re-pricing — GPT-class models are compressing the cost of features that took years to build; the moat thesis depends on owning the workflow, not just the feature set.
Horizon
1-3 yr $152.85 (20-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $182.02 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $267.56 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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