Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TPL analysis

Texas Pacific Land CorporationOil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation · Oil & Gas E&P
FCF$43mC-
Rev+13.1%B+
D/E0.01A
P/E53.5xC
PEG7.33D
35.3Score
$394.25$27.2B
1Y Target$453.39Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$663.80Compound horizon
10Y Target$984.71Long-dated conviction
FCF$43mTTM · 03/26
C-
FCF $43m — barely positive; fragile cash position · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+13.1%FY YoY
B+
Revenue +13.1% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.01
A
D/E 0.01 — least levered decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
P/E53.5x
C
P/E 53.5 — expensive vs Energy peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG7.33
D
PEG 7.33 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 35.3
Quality0.89
Growth0.50
Value0.10
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
28% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value2257% aboveest. fair value ~$17
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding above 60% a year for the next decade — vs the ~13% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $27.2b. Down 28% from 52-week high of $547.20 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median.
Moat
Net margin 60% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 36% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Trailing P/E 53.5x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. P/S 32.4x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $453.39 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $663.80 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $984.71 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TPL vs the Top Picks average

PillarTPLBook avgDiff
Quality0.890.82+0.06
Growth0.500.90-0.40
Value0.100.75-0.65

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-1.7 over 32 daily scores
From 36.7 (Jun 22) → 35.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
5
Position size
$1,971
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$295.69
25% below $394.25
$ at risk if stopped
$492.81
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL): score, valuation & FAQ

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is a Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 35.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A) and Rev (B+), while FCF (C-) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, TPL sits about 2257% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade.

Is TPL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TPL 35.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Texas Pacific Land Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TPL score 35.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TPL earns its highest marks on D/E (A) and Rev (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-) and PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TPL overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $394.25, TPL sits about 2257% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade. It trades at a 53.5x× P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TPL?

Trailing P/E 53.5x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. P/S 32.4x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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