Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TPB analysis

Turning Point Brands, Inc.Tobacco. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

TPB
Turning Point Brands, Inc. · Tobacco
FCF$20mC-
Rev+24.5%A-
D/E0.68B
P/E36.3xC
PEG0.05A
56.2Score
$83.41$1.7B
1Y Target$125.17Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$183.26Compound horizon
10Y Target$271.85Long-dated conviction
FCF$20mTTM
C-
FCF $20m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev+24.5%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +24.5% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.68
B
D/E 0.68 — near the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E36.3x
C
P/E 36.3 — expensive vs Consumer Defensive peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.05
A
PEG 0.05 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 56.2
Quality53.8
Growth67.8
Value48.6
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
43% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value243% aboveest. fair value ~$24
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~48% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability35% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC7.9% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Tobacco · market cap $1.7b. Down 43% from 52-week high of $146.90 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +24%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.05 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $125.17 (implying +50% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
Down 43% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Trailing P/E 36x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $125.17 (6-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $183.26 at ~17% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $271.85 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TPB vs the Top Picks average

PillarTPBBook avgDiff
Quality0.540.84-0.30
Growth0.680.84-0.16
Value0.490.78-0.30

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-2.9 over 44 daily scores
From 59.1 (Jun 22) → 56.2 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+8.3%
90-day change+0.7%
Forward EPS estimate$2.42

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TPB to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
23
Position size
$1,918
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$62.56
25% below $83.41
$ at risk if stopped
$479.61
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB): score, valuation & FAQ

Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) is a Tobacco company that scores 56.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A) and Rev (A-), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, TPB sits about 243% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 48% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TPB a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TPB 56.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A) and Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TPB score 56.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TPB earns its highest marks on PEG (A) and Rev (A-), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TPB overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $83.41, TPB sits about 243% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 48% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 36.3x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TPB?

Down 43% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Trailing P/E 36x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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