Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TJX analysis

The TJX Companies, Inc.Apparel Retail. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Retail
TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc. · Apparel Retail
FCF$5.5bB+
Rev+8.1%B
D/E1.34C+
P/E26.1xC+
PEG3.00C
49.5Score
$140.71$155.4B
1Y Target$172.80Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$253.00Compound horizon
10Y Target$375.30Long-dated conviction
FCF$5.5bTTM
B+
FCF $5.5b — strong cash profile, above most peers
Rev+8.1%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +8.1% — at or above S&P median
D/E1.34
C+
D/E 1.34 — above the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E26.1x
C+
P/E 26.1 — above the Consumer Cyclical median (≈75th pctile)
PEG3.00
C
PEG 3.00 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 49.5
Quality78.8
Growth65.0
Value23.7
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
17% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value16% aboveest. fair value ~$122
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~10% a year for the next decade — vs the ~10% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability53% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC28.4% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Apparel Retail · market cap $155.4b. 17% off the 52-week high of $170.00. 20 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $172.80 (implying +23% upside).
Moat
ROE 56% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $155.4b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $172.80 (20-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $253.00 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $375.30 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TJX vs the Top Picks average

PillarTJXBook avgDiff
Quality0.790.84-0.05
Growth0.650.87-0.22
Value0.240.76-0.52

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+8.8 over 48 daily scores
From 40.7 (Jun 22) → 49.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.2%
90-day change+0.2%
Forward EPS estimate$5.77

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TJX to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
14
Position size
$1,970
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$105.53
25% below $140.71
$ at risk if stopped
$492.49
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX): score, valuation & FAQ

The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) is a Apparel Retail company that scores 49.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (B+). On valuation, TJX sits about 16% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TJX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TJX 49.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by FCF (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of The TJX Companies, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TJX score 49.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TJX earns its highest marks on FCF (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TJX overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $140.71, TJX sits about 16% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 26.1x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TJX?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Store Retail stocks by score

All Consumer Cyclical rankings →

Analyze another ticker →