Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TEAM analysis

Atlassian CorporationSoftware - Application. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Cloud & SaaS
TEAM
Atlassian Corporation · Software - Application
FCF$1.3bC+
Rev+26.0%A-
D/E1.16C
P/S6.6xC+
PEG1.80C+
49.4Score
$171.33$43.4B
1Y Target$188.77Analyst consensus · 30 analysts
5Y Target$330.15Compound horizon
10Y Target$590.05Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.3bTTM
C+
FCF $1.3b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+26.0%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +26.0% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E1.16
C
D/E 1.16 — more levered than most Technology peers (≈90th pctile)
P/S6.6x
C+
P/S 6.6x — above the Technology median (≈75th pctile)
PEG1.80
C+
PEG 1.80 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 49.4
Quality37.3
Growth92.1
Value35.1
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
7% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value46% aboveest. fair value ~$117
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~24% a year for the next decade — vs the ~24% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability91% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC0.4% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Atlassian’s Jira and Confluence suite continues to lock in enterprise teams, driving a 26% YoY revenue growth while the cloud‑based Collections bundles expand the addressable market. The business generates $1.3 B of free cash flow on a $43.4 B market cap, and our Bull Rankings model flags a strong Growth pillar (92) that outweighs the modest Value score (35), meaning the compounding engine is still humming. The thesis rests on the ability to sustain this high‑growth engine as the collaboration market expands.
Moat
The Atlassian ecosystem creates a sticky network effect: teams that adopt Jira, Bitbucket, and the newer Compass platform embed workflows that are costly to untangle, locking in multi‑year contracts and generating cross‑sell opportunities through the Collections bundles. This integrated stack makes switching to rivals like Microsoft or Asana both technically complex and financially unattractive for large enterprises.
Risk
Atlassian is running a thin -0.8% profit margin and a negative -5.1% ROE, reflecting ongoing investment and pricing pressure; its debt‑to‑equity of 1.16 adds leverage risk if cash conversion falters. The Bull Rankings model flags Value as the weakest pillar, suggesting the current price already assumes aggressive 24% FCF growth—any slowdown below the 26% revenue pace would trigger a sharp re‑rating. A sustained margin contraction or a rise in debt would confirm the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $188.77 (30-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $330.15 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $590.05 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TEAM vs the Top Picks average

PillarTEAMBook avgDiff
Quality0.370.84-0.47
Growth0.920.87+0.05
Value0.350.76-0.41

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-12.4 over 47 daily scores
From 61.8 (Jun 22) → 49.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+10.2%
90-day change+8.8%
Forward EPS estimate$6.75

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TEAM to earn is materially higher (+8.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
11
Position size
$1,885
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$128.50
25% below $171.33
$ at risk if stopped
$471.16
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Atlassian Corporation (TEAM): score, valuation & FAQ

Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) is a Software - Application company that scores 49.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-). On valuation, TEAM sits about 46% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 24% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TEAM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TEAM 49.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Atlassian Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TEAM score 49.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TEAM earns its highest marks on Rev (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TEAM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $171.33, TEAM sits about 46% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 24% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TEAM?

Atlassian is running a thin -0.8% profit margin and a negative -5.1% ROE, reflecting ongoing investment and pricing pressure; its debt‑to‑equity of 1.16 adds leverage risk if cash conversion falters. The Bull Rankings model flags Value as the weakest pillar, suggesting the current price already assumes aggressive 24% FCF growth—any slowdown below the 26% revenue pace would trigger a sharp re‑rating. A sustained margin contraction or a rise in debt would confirm the bear case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Software stocks by score

All Technology rankings →

Analyze another ticker →