Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TEAM analysis

Atlassian Corporation — Software - Application. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

★
TEAM
Atlassian Corporation · Software - Application
FCF$1.2bC+
Rev+31.7%A
D/E1.41C+
P/S3.5xB
PEG0.65A-
83Score
$85.42
1Y Target$143.18Near-term target
5Y Target$171.81Compound horizon
10Y Target$447.07Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.2bTTM · 03/26
C+
FCF $1.2b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+31.7%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +31.7% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E1.41
C+
D/E 1.41 — moderately levered, watch interest coverage
P/S3.5x
B
P/S 3.5x — in line with software/tech peers
PEG0.65
A-
PEG 0.65 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone
Why now
Software - Application · market cap $21.7b. Down 62% from 52-week high of $222.59 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +32% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.65 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 31 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $143.18 (implying +68% upside).
Moat
Software economics — recurring revenue, embedded customer workflows, and high gross margin all compound the moat once a base account is won. Switching costs are the lever.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -3.5%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 62% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. ROE -19% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $143.18 (31-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $171.81 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $447.07 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Position sizing · TEAM
Shares to buy
23
Position size
$1,965
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$64.06
25% below $85.42
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

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