Bull Rankings model

Talos Energy Inc. (TALO) stock analysis

Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
TALO
Talos Energy Inc. · Oil & Gas E&P
34.9Score
$16.80Oct 9 close$2.8B
1Y Target$20.22Analyst consensus · 9 analysts
5Y Target$35.37Compound horizon
10Y Target$63.21Long-dated conviction
FCF$791mTTM · 06/26
C+
FCF $791m — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+2.4%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +2.4% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.66
B
D/E 0.66 — near the Energy debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/S*1.4x
B+
P/S 1.4x — below the Energy median (≈40th pctile)
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — no positive earnings to base it on

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

* PEG n/a — no positive earnings to base it on

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 34.9
Quality42.4
Growth33.9
Value29.6
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
10% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value85% belowest. fair value ~$110
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking 25% or more next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~25% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
ROIC-6.1% · Freturn on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $2.8b. 10% off the 52-week high of $18.73. 9 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $20.22 (implying +20% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -20.5%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -20% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $20.22 (9-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $35.37 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $63.21 — return distribution heavily skewed.

TALO vs the Top Picks average

PillarTALOBook avgDiff
Quality4283-41
Growth3489-55
Value3076-46

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-21.0 over 82 daily scores
From 55.9 (Jun 22) → 34.9 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

TALO at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD34.9/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY42.4GROWTH33.9VALUE29.6Reverse-DCF · Price implies an outright decline from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$84.6–$162 ▸FAIR-VALUE RANGE · ▸ BEYOND THE SCALE$16.8PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$110 · price $16.8 is 85% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+87%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$16.8LOW $9HIGH $18.7Trading at the 80th percentile of its 52-week range ($9–$18.7).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+15.3%
90-day change+46.6%
Forward EPS estimate$1.66

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TALO to earn is materially higher (+46.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
119
Position size
$1,999
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$12.60
25% below $16.80
$ at risk if stopped
$499.80
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Talos Energy Inc. (TALO): score, valuation & FAQ

Talos Energy Inc. (TALO) is an Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 34.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/S (B+). On valuation, TALO sits about 85% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking 25% or more next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is TALO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TALO 34.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by P/S (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Talos Energy Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TALO score 34.9 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 42.4 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 29.6 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. TALO earns its highest marks on P/S (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so TALO is measured against Oil & Gas E&P peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is TALO overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $16.80, TALO sits about 85% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking 25% or more next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TALO?

Currently unprofitable (margin -20.5%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -20% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

More Oil & Gas — E&P stocks by score

All Energy rankings →

Analyze another ticker →