1Y Target$16.86Near-term target
5Y Target$25.12Compound horizon
10Y Target$65.37Long-dated conviction
FCF$155mTTM · 12/25CFCF $155m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 12/25).
Rev+50.8%TTM YoYARevenue +50.8% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.13A-D/E 0.13 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet
P/S7.5xB-P/S 7.5x — moderate premium for growth
PEG——PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable
Why now
Silver · market cap $2.8b. Down 21% from 52-week high of $15.77 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +51% — in hypergrowth territory.
Moat
Speculative bucket — the moat thesis is forward-looking; without proven margin structure or capital efficiency yet, the durability argument is about IP / network effects / first-mover position that the company hasn't fully monetized.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -4.6%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Beta 1.97 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. ROE 2% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $16.86 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $25.12 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $65.37 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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