Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

SHOP analysis

Shopify Inc.Software - Application. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

E-commerce
SHOP
Shopify Inc. · Software - Application
FCF$2.4bB
Rev+32.5%A
D/E0.01A
P/E101.2xD
PEG2.61C
57.3Score
$149.80$194.4B
1Y Target$171.15Analyst consensus · 47 analysts
5Y Target$250.58Compound horizon
10Y Target$371.72Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.4bTTM
B
FCF $2.4b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+32.5%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +32.5% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.01
A
D/E 0.01 — least levered decile in Technology (≈10th pctile)
P/E101.2x
D
P/E 101.2 — most expensive decile in Technology (≈95th pctile)
PEG2.61
C
PEG 2.61 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 57.3
Quality70.0
Growth96.3
Value27.9
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
18% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value252% aboveest. fair value ~$43
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~49% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability44% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC11.5% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Software - Application · market cap $194.4b. 18% off the 52-week high of $182.19. Revenue growing +33% — in hypergrowth territory. 47 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $171.15 (implying +14% upside).
Moat
Net margin 15% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 15% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 122% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trailing P/E 101.2x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 2.59 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. P/S 14.6x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.
Horizon
1-3 yr $171.15 (47-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $250.58 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $371.72 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

SHOP vs the Top Picks average

PillarSHOPBook avgDiff
Quality0.700.84-0.14
Growth0.960.87+0.09
Value0.280.76-0.48

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-2.4 over 48 daily scores
From 59.7 (Jun 22) → 57.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+5.2%
90-day change+5.2%
Forward EPS estimate$2.45

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SHOP to earn is materially higher (+5.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
13
Position size
$1,947
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$112.35
25% below $149.80
$ at risk if stopped
$486.85
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Shopify Inc. (SHOP): score, valuation & FAQ

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is a Software - Application company that scores 57.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and D/E (A), while P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, SHOP sits about 252% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 49% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is SHOP a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores SHOP 57.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and D/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Shopify Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does SHOP score 57.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). SHOP earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and D/E (A), and is held back by P/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is SHOP overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $149.80, SHOP sits about 252% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 49% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 101.2x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in SHOP?

Trailing P/E 101.2x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 2.59 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. P/S 14.6x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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