Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

FICO analysis

Fair Isaac CorporationSoftware - Application. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

FICO
Fair Isaac Corporation · Software - Application
FCF$996mC+
Rev+24.1%A-
D/E
P/E33.5xB
PEG0.81B+
79.7Score
$1,157.57$25.0B
1Y Target$1,476Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$2,161Compound horizon
10Y Target$3,206Long-dated conviction
FCF$996mTTM
C+
FCF $996m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+24.1%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +24.1% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E33.5x
B
P/E 33.5 — near the Technology median (≈60th pctile)
PEG0.81
B+
PEG 0.81 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 79.7
Quality79.6
Growth89.5
Value71.2
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
42% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value40% aboveest. fair value ~$827
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~23% a year for the next decade — vs the ~23% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability100% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
FICO’s Scores segment is riding a 24.1% YoY revenue growth wave, powered by its myFICO.com subscription offering that locks in recurring revenue; free cash flow of $996 m fuels aggressive share buybacks, and a 34.1% profit margin shows pricing power in the credit‑score market – the very engine that drives our 72/100 quality‑growth score, with Growth at 93 anchoring the thesis.
Moat
The company’s proprietary Scores platform creates high switching costs for banks and insurers; integrating predictive credit scores into transaction streams embeds FICO deep into customers’ decision logic, a moat that competitors cannot replicate without years of data and trust. The Software segment’s pre‑configured analytics further lock in enterprise clients, reinforcing the network effect across the Americas, EMEA, and APAC.
Risk
A beta of 1.32 signals volatility that could erode returns if the credit‑score market faces tighter regulation or a downturn in lending; the 29.9 P/E, already above peers, means any slowdown in the 24.1% revenue growth will quickly turn the price upside down. A 20%/yr implied free‑cash‑flow growth from our reverse DCF is far above the current 24.1% revenue growth, so any miss in that trajectory would break the bull case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $1,476 (19-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $2,161 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $3,206 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

FICO vs the Top Picks average

PillarFICOBook avgDiff
Quality0.800.84-0.04
Growth0.890.84+0.06
Value0.710.78-0.07

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+7.7 over 47 daily scores
From 72.0 (Jun 22) → 79.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-2.8%
90-day change-2.1%
Forward EPS estimate$53.04

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect FICO to earn is drifting lower (-2.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
1
Position size
$1,158
2.3% of portfolio
Stop price
$868.18
25% below $1,158
$ at risk if stopped
$289.39
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO): score, valuation & FAQ

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is a Software - Application company that scores 79.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a strong reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-) and PEG (B+). On valuation, FICO sits about 40% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 23% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is FICO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores FICO 79.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a strong reading. That is driven by Rev (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Fair Isaac Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does FICO score 79.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). FICO earns its highest marks on Rev (A-) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is FICO overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $1157.57, FICO sits about 40% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 23% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 33.5x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in FICO?

A beta of 1.32 signals volatility that could erode returns if the credit‑score market faces tighter regulation or a downturn in lending; the 29.9 P/E, already above peers, means any slowdown in the 24.1% revenue growth will quickly turn the price upside down. A 20%/yr implied free‑cash‑flow growth from our reverse DCF is far above the current 24.1% revenue growth, so any miss in that trajectory would break the bull case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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