Oil & Gas Integrated. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
SHEL
Shell plc · Oil & Gas Integrated
53.1Score
$100.18Oct 9 close$285.1B
1Y Target$104.29Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$131.67Compound horizon
10Y Target$168.86Long-dated conviction
FCF$31.5bTTM · 06/26A
FCF $31.5b — top-tier cash generation, rarefied air · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev-6.1%FY YoYD
Revenue -6.1% — meaningful contraction · Latest fiscal year vs the prior one, from SEC filings — a trailing-twelve-month comparison couldn't be assembled from this company's filings.
D/E0.40B+
D/E 0.40 — below the Energy debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E11.1xB+
P/E 11.1 — below the Energy median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.70C+
PEG 1.70 — modest premium; above fair value
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 53.1
Quality72.4
Growth42.6
Value48.4
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value25% belowest. fair value ~$134
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 8% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~-5% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
ROIC10.8% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas Integrated · market cap $285.1b. Trading near 52-week high of $101.17 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue -6% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $104.29 (implying +4% upside).
Moat
ROE 10% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 174% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash. $285.1b market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
Revenue contracting -6% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $104.29 (15-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $131.67 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $168.86 if the moat survives secular pressure.
SHEL vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
SHEL
Book avg
Diff
Quality
72
83
-11
Growth
43
89
-46
Value
48
76
-28
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · SHEL
Trend
-8.4 over 82 daily scores
From 61.5 (Jun 22) → 53.1 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
SHEL at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+4.3%
90-day change
+18.4%
Forward EPS estimate
$10.48
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SHEL to earn is materially higher (+18.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · SHEL
$
%
%
Shares to buy
19
Position size
$1,903
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$75.14
25% below $100.18
$ at risk if stopped
$475.86
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Shell plc (SHEL): score, valuation & FAQ
Shell plc (SHEL) is an Oil & Gas Integrated company that scores 53.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+), while Rev (D) rate weaker. On valuation, SHEL sits about 25% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 8% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is SHEL a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores SHEL 53.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (A), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Shell plc's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does SHEL score 53.1 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 72.4 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 42.6 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. SHEL earns its highest marks on FCF (A), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+), and is held back by Rev (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so SHEL is measured against Oil & Gas Integrated peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is SHEL overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $100.18, SHEL sits about 25% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 8% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 11.1x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in SHEL?
Revenue contracting -6% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.