Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ROST analysis

Ross Stores, Inc.Apparel Retail. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Retail
ROST
Ross Stores, Inc. · Apparel Retail
FCF$2.6bB
Rev+11.9%B
D/E0.70B+
P/E28.9xC+
PEG2.82C
46.5Score
$241.52$77.5B
1Y Target$269.94Analyst consensus · 18 analysts
5Y Target$395.23Compound horizon
10Y Target$586.29Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.6bTTM
B
FCF $2.6b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+11.9%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +11.9% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.70
B+
D/E 0.70 — below the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E28.9x
C+
P/E 28.9 — above the Consumer Cyclical median (≈75th pctile)
PEG2.82
C
PEG 2.82 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 46.5
Quality82.6
Growth74.5
Value16.3
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
6% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value66% aboveest. fair value ~$145
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~18% a year for the next decade — vs the ~7% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability43% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC31.3% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Apparel Retail · market cap $77.5b. 6% off the 52-week high of $257.00. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $269.94 (implying +12% upside).
Moat
ROE 37% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 114% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $77.5b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $269.94 (18-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $395.23 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $586.29 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ROST vs the Top Picks average

PillarROSTBook avgDiff
Quality0.830.84in line
Growth0.750.87-0.13
Value0.160.76-0.59

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-1.0 over 48 daily scores
From 47.5 (Jun 22) → 46.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+4.5%
90-day change+4.3%
Forward EPS estimate$8.93

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ROST to earn is drifting higher (+4.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
8
Position size
$1,932
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$181.14
25% below $241.52
$ at risk if stopped
$483.04
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST): score, valuation & FAQ

Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) is a Apparel Retail company that scores 46.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (B+). On valuation, ROST sits about 66% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 18% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ROST a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ROST 46.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Ross Stores, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ROST score 46.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ROST earns its highest marks on D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ROST overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $241.52, ROST sits about 66% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 18% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 28.9x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ROST?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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