Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

RCL analysis

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.Travel Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Airlines & Travel
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. · Travel Services
FCF$1.4bC+
Rev+9.7%B
D/E2.25C
P/E19.0xB
PEG1.52C+
51.3Score
$308.00$82.4B
1Y Target$349.44Analyst consensus · 27 analysts
5Y Target$511.62Compound horizon
10Y Target$758.96Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.4bTTM
C+
FCF $1.4b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+9.7%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +9.7% — at or above S&P median
D/E2.25
C
D/E 2.25 — more levered than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E19.0x
B
P/E 19.0 — near the Consumer Cyclical median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.52
C+
PEG 1.52 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 51.3
Quality0.80
Growth0.50
Value0.34
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
16% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value416% aboveest. fair value ~$60
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~57% a year for the next decade — vs the ~15% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability22% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC21.1% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Travel Services · market cap $82.4b. 16% off the 52-week high of $366.50. 27 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $349.44 (implying +13% upside).
Moat
Net margin 24% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 46% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $82.4b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
D/E 2.25 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Beta 1.78 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $349.44 (27-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $511.62 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $758.96 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

RCL vs the Top Picks average

PillarRCLBook avgDiff
Quality0.800.83-0.03
Growth0.500.92-0.42
Value0.340.75-0.41

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.6 over 35 daily scores
From 50.7 (Jun 22) → 51.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
6
Position size
$1,848
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$231.00
25% below $308.00
$ at risk if stopped
$462.00
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL): score, valuation & FAQ

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) is a Travel Services company that scores 51.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

On valuation, RCL sits about 416% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 57% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is RCL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores RCL 51.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does RCL score 51.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). RCL grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is RCL overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $308.00, RCL sits about 416% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 57% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 19.0x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in RCL?

D/E 2.25 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Beta 1.78 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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