D/E 0.11 — least levered decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
P/E43.7xC
P/E 43.7 — expensive vs Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG3.64D
PEG 3.64 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 42.5
Quality88.8
Growth81.9
Value10.5
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
3% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value124% aboveest. fair value ~$23
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~27% a year for the next decade — vs the ~11% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability74% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC33.5% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Fastenal’s moat in industrial fastener distribution fuels a compounding revenue engine – its stocked‑on‑site vending solutions lock in repeat purchases from manufacturers and maintenance teams, driving a 12.5% YoY revenue growth while preserving a 15.5% profit margin and delivering a stellar ROE of 33.2%. Our Bull Rankings model awards the company a Quality‑growth score of 42.5, with Quality as the strongest pillar, underscoring the durability of its cash‑generating franchise. The thesis rests on the relentless expansion of fastener demand across construction and industrial repair, which should keep the business compounding for years to come.
Moat
Fastenal’s advantage lies in its extensive on‑site inventory and vending networks that embed fasteners into customers’ daily operations, creating high switching costs and enabling premium pricing. This distribution depth translates into a 33.2% ROE, driven by pricing power in the fastener category and low‑cost logistics that rivals cannot replicate quickly.
Risk
The stock trades at a lofty PE of 43.7, far above sector averages, while the Bull Rankings model’s reverse‑DCF implies a 27% annual free‑cash‑flow growth for a decade – a pace that dwarfs the actual 12.5% revenue growth and could be unsustainable. A slowdown in industrial construction spending would compress margins and expose the valuation gap, and a breach of the implied growth assumption would trigger a sharp price correction.
Horizon
1-3 yr $48.53 (13-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $71.05 at ~7% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $105.40 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
FAST vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
FAST
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.89
0.83
+0.05
Growth
0.82
0.87
-0.05
Value
0.11
0.76
-0.66
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · FAST
Trend
-2.4 over 51 daily scores
From 44.9 (Jun 22) → 42.5 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
FAST at a glance
Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.3%
90-day change
+2.3%
Forward EPS estimate
$1.40
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect FAST to earn is drifting higher (+2.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · FAST
$
%
%
Shares to buy
39
Position size
$1,994
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$38.35
25% below $51.13
$ at risk if stopped
$498.57
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Fastenal Company (FAST): score, valuation & FAQ
Fastenal Company (FAST) is a Industrial Distribution company that scores 42.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A) and Rev (B+), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, FAST sits about 124% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 27% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is FAST a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores FAST 42.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Fastenal Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does FAST score 42.5 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 88.8 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 10.5 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. FAST earns its highest marks on D/E (A) and Rev (B+), and is held back by PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so FAST is measured against Industrial Distribution peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is FAST overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $51.13, FAST sits about 124% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 27% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 43.7x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in FAST?
The stock trades at a lofty PE of 43.7, far above sector averages, while the Bull Rankings model’s reverse‑DCF implies a 27% annual free‑cash‑flow growth for a decade – a pace that dwarfs the actual 12.5% revenue growth and could be unsustainable. A slowdown in industrial construction spending would compress margins and expose the valuation gap, and a breach of the implied growth assumption would trigger a sharp price correction.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.