★
PLUG
Plug Power Inc · Electrical Equipment
FCF-$653mF
Rev+15.2%B+
D/E0.27A-
P/S7.2xB-
PEG——
60Score
$3.841Y Target$5.18Near-term target
5Y Target$7.72Compound horizon
10Y Target$20.10Long-dated conviction
FCF-$653mTTM · 03/26F
FCF is negative (-$653m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+15.2%TTM YoYB+
Revenue +15.2% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.27totalA-
D/E 0.27 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/S7.2xB-
P/S 7.2x — moderate premium for growth
PEG—proxy—
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Electrical Equipment · market cap $5.4b. 16% off the 52-week high of $4.58. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median.
Moat
Speculative bucket — the moat thesis is forward-looking; without proven margin structure or capital efficiency yet, the durability argument is about IP / network effects / first-mover position that the company hasn't fully monetized.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$653m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -227.1%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Beta 2.09 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $5.18 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $7.72 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $20.10 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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Position sizing · PLUG
Shares to buy
520
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$2.88
25% below $3.84
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.