Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MWA analysis

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTSSpecialty Industrial Machinery. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Water
MWA
MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS · Specialty Industrial Machinery
FCF$180mC
Rev+5.9%C+
D/E0.40B+
P/E17.6xA-
PEG1.02B+
72.1Score
$24.94$3.9B
1Y Target$31.00Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$45.39Compound horizon
10Y Target$67.33Long-dated conviction
FCF$180mTTM
C
FCF $180m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+5.9%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +5.9% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.40
B+
D/E 0.40 — below the Industrials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E17.6x
A-
P/E 17.6 — cheaper than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.02
B+
PEG 1.02 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 72.1
Quality75.0
Growth65.0
Value76.9
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
20% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value52% aboveest. fair value ~$16
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~13% a year for the next decade — vs the ~2% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability29% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC14.4% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Mueller Water Products is poised to capture the inevitable upgrade of aging municipal water infrastructure, anchored by its Water Flow Solutions segment that supplies essential valves to U.S. and Canadian utilities. The business is already delivering 15% profit margins, 19.8% ROE and 5.9% revenue growth YoY, while generating $180 m of free cash flow—a cash engine that can fund continued cap‑ex and shareholder returns. The thesis rests on the compounding effect of steady utility spend and the company’s ability to reinvest that cash into higher‑margin valve upgrades.
Moat
The moat comes from the entrenched, long‑lifecycle valve portfolio in the Water Flow Solutions segment, where municipalities and large construction firms face high switching costs and rigorous certification hurdles. Mueller’s iron‑gate, butterfly and ball valves are standard‑spec for water transmission, giving the firm pricing power that drives its near‑20% ROE, and its nationwide distribution network makes it hard for new entrants to win contracts quickly.
Risk
The bear case hinges on the gap between the Bull Rankings model’s implied 14% annual free‑cash‑flow growth and the modest 5.9% revenue growth the company actually delivers; if infrastructure spending stalls, the P/E of 18.4x may look stretched and margins could compress. A slowdown in municipal budgets would erode the valve backlog and push the stock toward its 52‑week low of $22.74, confirming the downside.
Horizon
1-3 yr $31.00 (6-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $45.39 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $67.33 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MWA vs the Top Picks average

PillarMWABook avgDiff
Quality0.750.84-0.09
Growth0.650.84-0.19
Value0.770.78in line

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-2.4 over 45 daily scores
From 74.5 (Jun 22) → 72.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.1%
90-day change+1.5%
Forward EPS estimate$1.60

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MWA to earn is drifting higher (+1.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
80
Position size
$1,995
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$18.71
25% below $24.94
$ at risk if stopped
$498.80
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA): score, valuation & FAQ

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) is a Specialty Industrial Machinery company that scores 72.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). On valuation, MWA sits about 52% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MWA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MWA 72.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MWA score 72.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MWA earns its highest marks on P/E (A-), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MWA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $24.94, MWA sits about 52% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.6x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MWA?

The bear case hinges on the gap between the Bull Rankings model’s implied 14% annual free‑cash‑flow growth and the modest 5.9% revenue growth the company actually delivers; if infrastructure spending stalls, the P/E of 18.4x may look stretched and margins could compress. A slowdown in municipal budgets would erode the valve backlog and push the stock toward its 52‑week low of $22.74, confirming the downside.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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