Bull Rankings model

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) stock analysis

REIT - Mortgage. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
NLY
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. · REIT - Mortgage
76.0REIT strength
$18.16Oct 13 close$13.7B
1Y Target$23.36Analyst consensus · 11 analysts
5Y Target$34.21Compound horizon
10Y Target$50.74Long-dated conviction
Yield16.4%
C+
Yield 16.4% — unusually high; verify the payout is sustainable · REITs are valued on FFO / AFFO, which our data source doesn't provide — we grade income, growth, and sector-relative leverage instead.
Rev+87.3%
A
Revenue +87.3% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E7.38
D
D/E 7.38 — most levered decile in Real Estate (≈95th pctile)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 76.0 / 100
Profitability100.0
Value (P/B)92.5
Income40.0

A peer-relative read for reits on profitability (ROE, depreciation-adjusted), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
26% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
REIT - Mortgage · market cap $13.7b. Down 26% from 52-week high of $24.52 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +87% — in hypergrowth territory. 11 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $23.36 (implying +29% upside).
Moat
Net margin 91% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 20% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
D/E 7.38 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
Horizon
1-3 yr $23.36 (11-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $34.21 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $50.74 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

Not enough history yet — the model records NLY's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

NLY at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · REITPROFITABILITY100VALUE93COVERED INCOME4076/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$18.2LOW $17.8HIGH $24.5Trading near its 52-week low ($17.8–$24.5).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-12%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.1%
90-day change+4.0%
Forward EPS estimate$3.11

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NLY to earn is drifting higher (+4.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
110
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$13.62
25% below $18.16
$ at risk if stopped
$499.40
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY): score, valuation & FAQ

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a REIT - Mortgage company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), while D/E (D) rate weaker.

Is NLY a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades NLY on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by Rev (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Annaly Capital Management, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade NLY?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, NLY isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on Rev (A) and weakest on D/E (D).

Is NLY overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for NLY, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. NLY is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in NLY?

D/E 7.38 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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