Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NLY analysis

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.REIT - Mortgage. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

NLY
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. · REIT - Mortgage
Yield13.0%C+
Rev+87.3%A
D/E7.38D
72.6REIT strength
$23.04$17.4B
1Y Target$24.23Analyst consensus · 11 analysts
5Y Target$35.47Compound horizon
10Y Target$52.62Long-dated conviction
Yield13.0%
C+
Yield 13.0% — unusually high; verify the payout is sustainable · REITs are valued on FFO / AFFO, which our data source doesn't provide — we grade income, growth, and sector-relative leverage instead.
Rev+87.3%
A
Revenue +87.3% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E7.38
D
D/E 7.38 — most levered decile in Real Estate (≈95th pctile)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Financial strength · 72.6 / 100
Profitability100.0
Value (P/B)84.0
Income40.0

A peer-relative read for reits on profitability (ROE, depreciation-adjusted), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
6% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
REIT - Mortgage · market cap $17.4b. 6% off the 52-week high of $24.52. Revenue growing +87% — in hypergrowth territory. 11 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $24.23 (implying +5% upside).
Moat
Net margin 91% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 20% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
D/E 7.38 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
Horizon
1-3 yr $24.23 (11-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $35.47 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $52.62 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

Not enough history yet — the model records NLY's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

NLY at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · REITPROFITABILITY100VALUE84COVERED INCOME4072.6/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$23$20 LOWHIGH $24.5Trading at the 67th percentile of its 52-week range ($20–$24.5).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+9%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+4.5%
Forward EPS estimate$3.11

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NLY to earn is drifting higher (+4.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
86
Position size
$1,981
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$17.28
25% below $23.04
$ at risk if stopped
$495.36
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY): score, valuation & FAQ

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a REIT - Mortgage company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), while D/E (D) rate weaker.

Is NLY a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades NLY on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by Rev (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Annaly Capital Management, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade NLY?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, NLY isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on Rev (A) and weakest on D/E (D).

Is NLY overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for NLY — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in NLY?

D/E 7.38 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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